NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Derrick Henry RB

BAL vs ATL · Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET

79.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 93.5
Graph avg: 90.0
Graph median: 82.023–216
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Carries22.2▲+4.2

Rush Yds93.5▼-0.3

Rush TD1.8▲+0.8

Targets1.8▲+0.5

Rec1.8▲+0.9

Rec Yds11.0▲+2.2

Snaps37.8▲+5.1

Snap %59.0%▲+4.5

2025

23

Sep 14
50

Sep 22
42

Sep 28
33

Oct 05
122

Oct 12
71

Oct 26
119

Oct 30
75

Nov 09
103

Nov 16
64

Nov 23
60

Nov 27
94

Dec 07
100

Dec 14
128

Dec 21
216

Dec 27
126

Jan 04
2026

144

Sep 13
68

Sep 20
89

Sep 27
73

Oct 04
?

Oct 12

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 79.5

Home 55% 11/20 · avg 97.2
Away 70% 14/20 · avg 110.8
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 59.5 80% 16/20
O 69.5 65% 13/20
O 79.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 89.5 45% 9/20
O 99.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds74.0#28
Yds/Carry4.0#21
Rush TD0.4#28
Targets5.7#11
Rec Yds23.5#30

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-23.5

Avg diff %-43%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Alvin Kamara	23	25.5	-10%
Sep 24	Kaleb Johnson	6	24.7	-76%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	53	84.3	-37%
Sep 13	Jaylen Warren	46	87.7	-48%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%20.4 yds	4%11.0 yds	8%12.3 yds
Short	26%6.9 yds	25%10.6 yds	29%5.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%9.8 yds#17	2%18.7 yds#7	10%10.7 yds#16
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	14%5.7 yds#26	31%4.6 yds#31

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	39%12.7 yds	11%-0.5 yds	50%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	3	7.3	22	29.8%
2	Mark Andrews TE	4	6.0	24	23.7%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	4	3.8	15	14.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
8	Derrick Henry RB	4	1.8	7	6.6%
9	Devontez Walker WR	3	1.7	5	6.3%
10	Justice Hill RB	4	1.5	6	5.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 79.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	73	Under	97.5	40 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	89	Over	90.5	43 (67%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	68	Under	94.5	31 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	144	Over	79.5	37 (54%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	126	Over	135.5	36 (71%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	216	Over	180.5	48 (63%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	128	Over	132.5	24 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	100	Over	118.5	15 (37%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	94	Over	70.5	43 (54%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	60	Under	60.5	24 (40%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	64	Under	89.5	35 (56%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	103	Over	115.5	33 (54%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	75	Under	81.5	47 (67%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	119	Over	101.5	36 (64%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	71	Under	87.5	36 (58%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	122	Over	69.5	38 (49%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	33	Under	25.5	28 (65%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	42	Under	49.5	21 (38%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	50	Under	50.5	28 (49%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	23	Under	30.5	34 (61%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 79.5PrizePicks 81.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.