NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs NO · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

17.5 Rush Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 14.0
Graph avg: 27.0
Graph median: 21.56–64
Over the close: 38%3/8

2026 per game

Pass Yds144.3▼-48.1

Att23.7▼-8.5

Cmp%63.4%▼-4.9

Pass TD0.3▼-0.9

INT0.7▲+0.1

Rush Yds14.0▼-20.6

Snaps49.3▼-14.3

Snap %72.3%▼-26.5

2024

14

Oct 13
64

Oct 21
19

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
21

Nov 10
9

Nov 24
48

Dec 01
16

Dec 08
11

Dec 15
63

Dec 22
32

Dec 28
22

Jan 05
2025

38

Sep 07
32

Sep 14
37

Sep 21
41

Sep 25
25

Oct 05
2026

9

Sep 13
17

Sep 27
16

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 26.4
Away 73% 8/11 · avg 37.9
vs NO 100% 1/1 · avg 38.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 95% 19/20
O 12.5 80% 16/20
O 17.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 22.5 45% 9/20
O 27.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NO

What NO allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds197.3#29
Yds/Att6.4#24
Cmp%60.6%#23
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att30.7#23

QBs vs NO · 2026

Each main QB who faced NO this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-30%

Beat their average0% (0/2)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Sep 20	Lamar Jackson	34	36.7	-7%
Sep 13	Jared Goff	2	4.3	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.4 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%6.9 yds
Short	26%4.6 yds	18%7.0 yds	35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.7 yds#26	2%16.0 yds#15	7%12.2 yds#10
Short	33%6.3 yds#9	13%6.7 yds#17	37%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 8 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.4 yds	3%7.6 yds	7%10.4 yds
Short	32%4.3 yds	19%7.8 yds	31%4.3 yds

Last 8 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	3	5.7	17	26.2%
2	T.J. Hockenson TE	4	6.5	26	24.5%
3	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	4	3.8	15	13.1%
5	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
6	Tai Felton WR	2	1.5	3	5.5%
7	Jauan Jennings WR	3	1.3	4	5.1%
8	DeeJay Dallas RB	4	0.8	3	3.2%
9	Gavin Bartholomew TE	1	1.0	1	3.0%
10	Myles Price WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	16	Under	21.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	17	Under	20.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	9	Under	23.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	25	Over	30.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	41	Over	29.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	37	Over	37.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	32	Over	20.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	38	Over	29.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	22	Over	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	32	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	63	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	11	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	16	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	48	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	9	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	21	Over	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	6	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	19	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	64	Over	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	14	Under	—	58 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 17.5Underdog 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.