NFL Prop Research

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Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 171 players

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs SF ·

4.5 Rush Yds O -120U -105
Hit rate · All 58%24/41 Odds imply 51.6% Over
Season avg
3.7
Graph avg
8.6
Graph median
6.0-3–39
Over the close
40%8/20
2026 per game
Pass Yds186.7â–¼-49.3
Att23.0â–¼-5.4
Cmp%65.2%â–¼-1.5
Pass TD2.0â–²+0.5
INT1.0â–²+0.3
Rush Yds3.7â–¼-1.8
Snaps44.0â–¼-16.6
Snap %70.0%â–¼-26.2
Sam Darnold rushing yards by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 4.5.
  1. 2024
    32
  2. 0
  3. 15
  4. 11
  5. 39
  6. 6
  7. 14
  8. 28
  9. 18
  10. -1
  11. 22
  12. 7
  13. 0
  14. 11
  15. -3
  16. 10
  17. 19
  18. 2025
    14
  19. 0
  20. 0
  21. 24
  22. 0
  23. 2
  24. 1
  25. 0
  26. -2
  27. 11
  28. -1
  29. 0
  30. 23
  31. 5
  32. 7
  33. 2
  34. 9
  35. 0
  36. 9
  37. 5
  38. 2026
    0
  39. 5
  40. 6
  41. ?

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

  • Home 52% 11/21 · avg 7.7
  • Away 65% 13/20 · avg 9.4
  • vs SF 75% 3/4 · avg 13.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

  • O 4.5 Today 58% 24/41
  • O 9.5 37% 15/41
  • O 14.5 22% 9/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SF

What SF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass YdsYds/AttCmp%Pass TDPass Att
  • Pass Yds212.6#21
  • Yds/Att6.4#22
  • Cmp%64.2%#14
  • Pass TD1.2#23
  • Pass Att33.0#12

QBs vs SF · 2026

Each main QB who faced SF this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.4
Avg diff %-42%
Beat their average25% (1/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 04 Bo Nix105.0+100%
Sep 27 Jacoby Brissett413.0-69%
Sep 20 Malik Willis635.3-83%
Sep 10 Matthew Stafford-17.3-114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep4%5.0 yds3%11.7 yds8%15.9 yds
Short32%6.9 yds19%7.4 yds32%6.7 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SF defense

SF defense: Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep6%5.4 yds#293%15.8 yds#1610%11.0 yds#15
Short34%7.0 yds#512%4.4 yds#3235%4.8 yds#26

Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep4%7.0 yds3%12.0 yds9%14.2 yds
Short35%6.4 yds19%7.7 yds31%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · SEA 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR410.54237.3%
2Rashid Shaheed WR43.81514.3%
3AJ Barner TE43.81511.8%
4Cooper Kupp WR43.01210.3%
5Jadarian Price RB32.377.6%
6George Holani RB42.086.0%
7Emanuel Wilson RB41.256.0%
8Tory Horton WR22.045.8%
9Elijah Arroyo TE11.013.8%
10Brady Russell RB31.033.5%

Game log · 41 games

DateWkOppRush Ydsvs 4.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-044vs LAC6Over4.560 (100%)
2026-09-273@ WAS5Over6.567 (100%)
2026-09-091vs NE0Under5.55 (10%)
2026-02-0822 (P)@ NE5Over5.572 (100%)
2026-01-2521 (P)vs LA9Over4.567 (100%)
2026-01-1720 (P)vs SF0Under4.547 (89%)
2026-01-0318@ SF9Over5.569 (100%)
2025-12-2817@ CAR2Under0.566 (100%)
2025-12-1816vs LA7Over7.568 (100%)
2025-12-1415vs IND5Over5.560 (100%)
2025-12-0714@ ATL23Over15.553 (87%)
2025-11-3013vs MIN0Under1.564 (96%)
2025-11-2312@ TEN-1Under2.548 (100%)
2025-11-1611@ LA11Over5.584 (100%)
2025-11-0910vs ARI-2Under5.556 (90%)
2025-11-029@ WAS0Under—48 (94%)
2025-10-207vs HOU1Under—72 (100%)
2025-10-126@ JAX2Under5.555 (100%)
2025-10-055vs TB0Under6.561 (100%)
2025-09-254@ ARI24Over5.566 (100%)
2025-09-213vs NO0Under—39 (68%)
2025-09-142@ PIT0Under5.565 (100%)
2025-09-071vs SF14Over10.552 (100%)
2025-01-1319 (P)@ LA19Over—74 (100%)
2025-01-0518@ DET10Over—65 (100%)
2024-12-2917vs GB-3Under—72 (100%)
2024-12-2216@ SEA11Over—66 (100%)
2024-12-1615vs CHI0Under—77 (100%)
2024-12-0814vs ATL7Over—58 (97%)
2024-12-0113vs ARI22Over—53 (100%)
2024-11-2412@ CHI-1Under—69 (97%)
2024-11-1711@ TEN18Over—73 (100%)
2024-11-1010@ JAX28Over—84 (100%)
2024-11-039vs IND14Over—73 (100%)
2024-10-248@ LA6Over—50 (100%)
2024-10-207vs DET39Over—60 (100%)
2024-10-065vs NYJ11Over—72 (99%)
2024-09-294@ GB15Over—68 (100%)
2024-09-223vs HOU0Under—61 (97%)
2024-09-152vs SF32Over—54 (100%)
2024-09-081@ NYG3Under—55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 16m ago.