NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Wright RB

MIA vs CIN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

22.5 Rush Yds O -108U -116

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 5.7
Graph avg: 19.1
Graph median: 13.5-4–107
Over the close: 20%1/5

2026 per game

Carries2.7▼-5.1

Rush Yds5.7▼-26.3

Rush TD0.0▼-0.2

Targets0.0▼-1.0

Rec0.0▼-0.6

Rec Yds0.0▼-4.9

Snaps6.3▼-6.8

Snap %14.3%▼-7.8

2024

18

Oct 27
18

Nov 03
3

Nov 11
4

Nov 17
28

Nov 24
7

Dec 08
3

Dec 15
-4

Jan 05
2025

28

Oct 26
17

Nov 09
4

Nov 16
16

Nov 30
107

Dec 07
2

Dec 15
35

Dec 21
56

Dec 28
23

Jan 04
2026

-1

Sep 13
11

Sep 20
7

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 36% 4/11 · avg 20.1
Away 36% 5/14 · avg 23.8
vs CIN 100% 1/1 · avg 35.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 50% 10/20
O 17.5 40% 8/20
O 22.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 27.5 25% 5/20
O 32.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CIN

What CIN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds90.2#21
Yds/Carry5.1#2
Rush TD0.6#20
Targets5.3#17
Rec Yds38.3#7

RBs vs CIN · 2026

Each main RB who faced CIN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Bhayshul Tuten	73	68.0	+7%
Sep 27	Jaylen Warren	127	60.7	+109%
Sep 20	David Montgomery	10	39.0	-74%
Sep 13	Bucky Irving	45	90.2	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%8.0 yds	7%12.7 yds	8%11.9 yds
Short	32%6.7 yds	14%7.6 yds	30%4.9 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CIN defense

CIN defense: Throws CIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds#23	3%10.0 yds#29	9%3.2 yds#32
Short	28%8.4 yds#1	21%8.3 yds#8	31%7.7 yds#1

Throws CIN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 5 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	33%10.3 yds	11%0.0 yds	56%2.6 yds

Last 5 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	4	7.0	28	27.3%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
4	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	3	3.3	10	14.1%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	3	4.0	12	13.5%
6	Chris Bell WR	4	3.2	13	12.4%
7	Ollie Gordon II RB	3	1.7	5	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Jalen Tolbert WR	1	1.0	1	5.9%
10	Will Kacmarek TE	4	1.0	4	5.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	7	Under	27.5	12 (31%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	11	Under	—	3 (5%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	-1	Under	—	4 (7%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NE	23	Over	27.5	26 (46%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	56	Over	57.5	8 (15%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	35	Over	10.5	18 (31%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	2	Under	5.5	4 (8%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	107	Over	—	34 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	16	Under	—	6 (10%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	4	Under	—	1 (2%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	17	Under	—	10 (19%)
2025-10-26	8	@ ATL	28	Over	—	11 (16%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NYJ	-4	Under	—	9 (13%)
2024-12-15	15	@ HOU	3	Under	—	3 (4%)
2024-12-08	14	vs NYJ	7	Under	—	14 (19%)
2024-11-24	12	vs NE	28	Over	—	13 (19%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LV	4	Under	—	18 (26%)
2024-11-11	10	@ LA	3	Under	—	9 (17%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BUF	18	Under	—	9 (15%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ARI	18	Under	—	3 (5%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.