NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

TreVeyon Henderson RB

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

47.5 Rush Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 42%10/24 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.0
Graph avg: 47.0
Graph median: 30.03–148
Over the close: 42%10/24

2026 per game

Carries12.7▲+2.7

Rush Yds47.0+0.0

Rush TD0.3▼-0.1

Targets1.0▼-1.3

Rec0.3▼-1.6

Rec Yds2.0▼-10.1

Snaps28.0▲+0.2

Snap %44.7%▲+1.6

2025

27

Sep 07
10

Sep 14
28

Sep 21
32

Sep 28
24

Oct 05
27

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
75

Oct 26
55

Nov 02
147

Nov 09
62

Nov 13
66

Nov 23
67

Dec 01
148

Dec 14
3

Dec 21
82

Dec 28
53

Jan 04
27

Jan 11
25

Jan 18
5

Jan 25
19

Feb 08
2026

76

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 47.5

Home 54% 7/13 · avg 53.4
Away 27% 3/11 · avg 39.5
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 27.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 37.5 46% 11/24
O 42.5 42% 10/24
O 47.5 Today 42% 10/24
O 52.5 42% 10/24
O 57.5 33% 8/24

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.2#6
Yds/Carry4.5#11
Rush TD0.8#13
Targets5.2#19
Rec Yds24.7#27

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+28.8

Avg diff %+46%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kenneth Walker III	177	120.0	+48%
Sep 27	Travis Etienne	57	35.5	+61%
Sep 20	Omarion Hampton	94	48.0	+96%
Sep 13	De'Von Achane	36	45.5	-21%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	4%0.0 yds
Short	42%3.2 yds	23%5.3 yds	31%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 24 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 47.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	42	Under	40.5	28 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	23	Under	41.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	76	Over	33.5	33 (60%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	19	Under	19.5	28 (39%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	5	Under	35.5	4 (6%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	25	Under	34.5	25 (38%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	27	Under	11.5	26 (41%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	53	Over	73.5	24 (41%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	82	Over	43.5	34 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	3	Under	40.5	14 (19%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	148	Over	43.5	25 (48%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	67	Over	68.5	32 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	66	Over	60.5	46 (65%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	62	Over	57.5	59 (88%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	147	Over	100.5	51 (84%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	55	Over	55.5	51 (75%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	75	Over	70.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	5	Under	5.5	9 (14%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	27	Under	35.5	19 (30%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	24	Under	29.5	30 (50%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	32	Under	36.5	15 (31%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	28	Under	22.5	34 (46%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	10	Under	11.5	19 (32%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	27	Under	27.5	25 (35%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 47.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 16m ago.