NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs SEA · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

23.5 Rush Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 47%14/30 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 30.5
Graph avg: 21.8
Graph median: 20.0-7–56
Over the close: 60%9/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds251.8▲+18.2

Att28.2▼-2.8

Cmp%69.9%▲+2.7

Pass TD2.8▲+0.8

INT0.2▼-0.9

Rush Yds30.5▲+11.6

Snaps57.2▼-5.1

Snap %96.2%▼-0.6

2024

11

Sep 09
12

Sep 15
41

Sep 22
11

Sep 29
33

Oct 06
19

Oct 10
27

Oct 20
56

Oct 27
17

Nov 10
40

Nov 17
4

Dec 01
11

Dec 08
3

Dec 12
26

Dec 22
12

Dec 30
2025

17

Sep 07
13

Sep 28
-7

Nov 16
16

Nov 24
4

Nov 30
44

Dec 14
11

Dec 22
28

Dec 28
21

Jan 03
24

Jan 11
37

Jan 17
2026

29

Sep 10
30

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
29

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 53% 9/17 · avg 24.6
Away 38% 5/13 · avg 18.0
vs SEA 40% 2/5 · avg 26.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 13.5 63% 19/30
O 18.5 53% 16/30
O 23.5 Today 47% 14/30
O 28.5 33% 10/30
O 33.5 20% 6/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds209.6#25
Yds/Att6.3#29
Cmp%62.0%#19
Pass TD1.4#17
Pass Att33.2#9

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.1

Avg diff %+31%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	40	16.0	+150%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	11	19.0	-42%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	7	12.0	-42%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	47	29.7	+58%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%12.2 yds
Short	38%7.1 yds	19%6.8 yds	27%5.7 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.5 yds#24	3%30.0 yds#1	9%10.2 yds#23
Short	31%5.1 yds#27	18%4.9 yds#30	32%4.6 yds#30

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.3 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%10.8 yds
Short	39%7.1 yds	18%7.0 yds	27%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	4	6.0	24	21.4%
2	George Kittle TE	4	5.5	22	20.3%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	4	5.5	22	19.8%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4	4.2	17	15.1%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	1	1.0	1	3.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%
10	Luke Farrell TE	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	29	Over	17.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	34	Over	16.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	30	Over	13.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	29	Over	18.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	37	Over	19.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	24	Over	27.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	21	Under	21.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	28	Over	28.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	11	Under	10.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	44	Over	7.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	4	Under	2.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	16	Under	15.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	-7	Under	5.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	13	Under	15.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	17	Under	18.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	12	Under	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	26	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	3	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	11	Under	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	4	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	40	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	17	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	56	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	27	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	19	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	33	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	11	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LA	41	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	12	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	11	Under	—	71 (99%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.