NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jared Goff QB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

0.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 3.8
Graph avg: 3.0
Graph median: 0.0-2–24
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds303.5▲+35.0

Att40.2▲+6.2

Cmp%67.7%▼-0.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.2

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.8▲+1.1

Snaps69.5▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+1.5

2025

6

Sep 14
6

Sep 22
0

Sep 28
-2

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
7

Oct 20
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
-1

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
24

Nov 27
-2

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
-1

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
7

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 5.1
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 1.1
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 6.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 5.5 35% 7/20
O 10.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds251.1#5
Yds/Att8.2#3
Cmp%66.2%#8
Pass TD2.6#1
Pass Att30.8#22

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.2

Avg diff %-12%

Beat their average67% (2/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	0	7.5	-100%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	34	29.3	+16%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	29	19.7	+47%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	30%5.2 yds	26%9.0 yds	29%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	0	Under	1.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	6	Over	0.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	7	Over	0.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	2	Over	0.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	0	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	2	Over	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	-1	Under	0.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	-2	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	24	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	-1	Under	0.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	0	Under	0.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	7	Over	5.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	7	Over	0.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	-2	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	0	Under	—	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	6	Over	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	6	Over	0.5	56 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.