NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

25.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 16.3
Graph avg: 28.4
Graph median: 26.50–75
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Carries4.0▼-4.7

Rush Yds16.3▼-15.1

Rush TD0.0▼-0.4

Targets7.0▲+3.3

Rec6.7▲+3.7

Rec Yds44.0▲+21.7

Snaps26.3▼-3.0

Snap %43.7%▼-0.1

2025

2

Sep 21
58

Sep 29
12

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
46

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
9

Nov 06
30

Nov 16
35

Nov 30
75

Dec 07
65

Dec 14
50

Dec 21
43

Dec 25
28

Jan 04
20

Jan 17
37

Jan 25
2026

18

Sep 14
6

Sep 27
25

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 34.9
Away 30% 3/10 · avg 22.7
vs LAC 50% 1/2 · avg 15.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 65% 13/20
O 20.5 55% 11/20
O 25.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 30.5 40% 8/20
O 35.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.3#24
Yds/Carry3.8#25
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds29.6#17

RBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+16.5

Avg diff %+33%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Emanuel Wilson	81	36.3	+123%
Sep 27	James Cook	154	89.0	+73%
Sep 20	Ashton Jeanty	48	72.0	-33%
Sep 13	Jeremiyah Love	41	60.7	-32%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	40%6.2 yds	14%3.5 yds	44%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	25	Under	15.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	6	Under	20.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	18	Under	17.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	37	Over	39.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	20	Under	55.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	28	Over	56.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	43	Over	22.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	50	Over	50.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	65	Over	—	46 (68%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	75	Over	70.5	50 (68%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	35	Over	58.5	33 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	30	Over	15.5	38 (61%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	9	Under	10.5	17 (28%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	5	Under	17.5	20 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	46	Over	48.5	17 (27%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	0	Under	5.5	20 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	4	Under	5.5	17 (28%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	12	Under	15.5	15 (20%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	58	Over	40.5	33 (41%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	2	Under	2.5	15 (29%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 24.5PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.