NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Harold Fannin Jr. TE

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +129U -165

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 41.2% Over

Season avg: 3.6
Graph avg: 4.2
Graph median: 4.01–8
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Targets5.4▼-1.3

Rec3.6▼-0.9

Rec Yds31.4▼-14.3

Rec TD0.6▲+0.2

Snaps54.4▲+5.3

Snap %87.2%▲+11.3

4.5

2025

5

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
6

Oct 26
4

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
7

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
2026

2

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
7

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 27% 3/11 · avg 4.3
Away 50% 5/10 · avg 4.3
vs BAL 50% 1/2 · avg 3.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 75% 15/20
O 3.5 60% 12/20
O 4.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 5.5 25% 5/20
O 6.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds39.0#26
Receptions4.3#24
Targets6.1#26
Yds/Target6.4#23
Rec TD0.4#14

TEs vs BAL · 2026

Each main TE who faced BAL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %+34%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kyle Pitts	5	1.2	+300%
Oct 04	Gunnar Helm	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	Jake Ferguson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 20	Juwan Johnson	4	5.2	-24%
Sep 13	Tyler Warren	3	6.8	-56%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%11.3 yds	5%0.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	31%7.5 yds	25%5.4 yds	29%4.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	1	Under	4.5	63 (93%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	3	Under	4.5	57 (89%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	7	Over	3.5	60 (86%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	5	Over	3.5	50 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	2	Under	4.5	42 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PIT	2	Under	5.5	12 (23%)
2025-12-21	16	vs BUF	4	Under	5.5	57 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CHI	7	Over	4.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs TEN	8	Over	6.5	62 (90%)
2025-11-30	13	vs SF	3	Under	3.5	58 (92%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LV	4	Under	4.5	46 (90%)
2025-11-16	11	vs BAL	2	Under	2.5	40 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ NYJ	4	Under	4.5	48 (66%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NE	6	Over	3.5	40 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	vs MIA	4	Under	4.5	47 (82%)
2025-10-12	6	@ PIT	7	Over	6.5	66 (80%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIN	4	Under	2.5	55 (79%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DET	2	Under	2.5	57 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	vs GB	3	Under	—	42 (64%)
2025-09-14	2	@ BAL	5	Over	3.5	46 (63%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.