NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylin Noel WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

2.5 Receptions O +150U -235

Hit rate · All 25%6/24 Odds imply 36.3% Over

Season avg: 2.6
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 1.00–5
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Targets3.4▲+1.5

Rec2.6▲+1.2

Rec Yds45.4▲+30.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps30.0▲+13.4

Snap %44.6%▲+20.4

2.5

2025

1

Sep 07
0

Sep 15
1

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
4

Oct 20
5

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 20
0

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
1

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
0

Jan 18
2026

2

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 25% 3/12 · avg 1.5
Away 25% 3/12 · avg 1.8
vs JAX 50% 1/2 · avg 2.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 71% 17/24
O 1.5 42% 10/24
O 2.5 Today 25% 6/24
O 3.5 17% 4/24
O 4.5 8% 2/24

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	5	3.0	+67%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	5	2.5	+100%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	3	6.0	-50%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	11	4.0	+175%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	DeMario Douglas	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaylen Waddle	8	2.8	+186%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	4	3.5	+14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	15%31.5 yds	4%0.0 yds	4%22.0 yds
Short	35%4.8 yds	23%12.0 yds	19%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 24 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	5	Over	1.5	30 (45%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	3	Over	1.5	34 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	2	Under	2.5	14 (26%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	1	Under	2.5	48 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	2	Under	1.5	24 (30%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	0	Under	1.5	6 (8%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	6 (9%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	1	Under	1.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	3	Over	0.5	16 (25%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	—	9 (14%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	0	Under	1.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	2	Under	—	25 (36%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	1.5	18 (24%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	1	Under	0.5	17 (29%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	1	Under	1.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	4	Over	—	25 (33%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	11 (15%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	5	Over	3.5	31 (39%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	4	Over	—	33 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	2	Under	—	21 (30%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	1	Under	—	17 (24%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	1	Under	—	9 (14%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	0	Under	1.5	15 (31%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	1	Under	1.5	17 (27%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Fanatics, updated 7m ago.