NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kayshon Boutte WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

2.5 Receptions O +144U -185

Hit rate · All 47%18/38 Odds imply 38.7% Over

Season avg: 2.4
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 41%9/22

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-0.1

Rec2.4▲+0.1

Rec Yds30.6▼-9.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps40.8▼-2.9

Snap %61.6%▼-6.0

2.5

2024

1

Sep 19
1

Sep 29
2

Oct 06
3

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
3

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
1

Nov 24
3

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
5

Dec 22
4

Dec 28
7

Jan 05
2025

6

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
3

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
2

Nov 23
4

Dec 01
1

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Jan 04
4

Jan 11
3

Jan 18
1

Jan 25
1

Feb 08
2026

1

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 2.9
Away 29% 5/17 · avg 2.2
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 97% 37/38
O 1.5 68% 26/38
O 2.5 Today 47% 18/38
O 3.5 24% 9/38
O 4.5 10% 4/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	5	3.0	+67%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	5	2.5	+100%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	3	6.0	-50%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	11	4.0	+175%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	DeMario Douglas	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaylen Waddle	8	2.8	+186%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	4	3.5	+14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%14.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	19%9.5 yds
Short	29%7.0 yds	19%7.5 yds	17%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	3	Over	2.5	39 (59%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	3	Over	1.5	34 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	2	Under	2.5	37 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	3	Over	2.5	58 (72%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	1	Under	—	36 (46%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	1	Under	2.5	52 (73%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	1	Under	2.5	40 (62%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	3	Over	2.5	54 (83%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	4	Over	4.5	34 (53%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	2	Under	2.5	34 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	43 (58%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	1	Under	2.5	39 (75%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	4	Over	4.5	49 (75%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	2	Under	1.5	57 (80%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	0	Under	2.5	18 (26%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	3	Over	2.5	50 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	2	Under	2.5	46 (71%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	5	Over	2.5	43 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	3	Over	2.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	1	Under	2.5	34 (69%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	2	Under	2.5	56 (76%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	1	Under	2.5	43 (72%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	6	Over	5.5	58 (82%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	7	Over	—	45 (70%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	4	Over	—	41 (77%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	5	Over	—	64 (88%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	2	Under	—	45 (88%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	3	Over	—	71 (99%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	1	Under	—	60 (87%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	4	Over	—	73 (96%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	4	Over	—	62 (97%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	2	Under	—	66 (96%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	3	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	1	Under	—	50 (83%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	3	Over	—	55 (83%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	2	Under	—	40 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	1	Under	—	15 (23%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	1	Under	—	18 (35%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.