NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Warren RB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -119U -107

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 51.2% Over

Season avg: 3.8
Graph avg: 2.7
Graph median: 2.00–6
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Carries14.0▲+0.9

Rush Yds82.0▲+23.1

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+2.5

Rec3.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds46.0▲+26.2

Snaps50.6▲+20.3

Snap %76.4%▲+25.9

3.5

2025

5

Sep 21
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 16
2

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
3

Dec 15
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
1

Jan 12
2026

5

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 32% 6/19 · avg 2.8
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 2.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 85% 17/20
O 2.5 45% 9/20
O 3.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 4.5 20% 4/20
O 5.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TB

What TB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.1#28
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.8#11
Rec Yds35.7#9

RBs vs TB · 2026

Each main RB who faced TB this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.4

Avg diff %+100%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Javonte Williams	2	3.8	-47%
Oct 04	MarShawn Lloyd	5	1.2	+300%
Sep 27	Aaron Jones	5	1.8	+186%
Sep 20	Quinshon Judkins	5	3.2	+54%
Sep 13	Chase Brown	5	4.8	+5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%3.8 yds	12%14.2 yds	60%9.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	6	Over	3.5	52 (87%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Under	3.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	3	Under	4.5	56 (90%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	2	Under	3.5	50 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	5	Over	2.5	25 (37%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	26 (46%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	28 (37%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	21 (32%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	2	Under	2.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	3	Under	2.5	30 (45%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	3	Under	1.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	2	Under	2.5	24 (56%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	0	Under	2.5	36 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	2	Under	2.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	2	Under	2.5	24 (46%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	2	Under	1.5	35 (56%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	2	Under	—	39 (62%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	4	Over	5.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	2	Under	2.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	5	Over	2.5	43 (80%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.