NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Isaiah Likely TE

NYG vs NO · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

5.5 Receptions O +109U -139

Hit rate · All 12%4/34 Odds imply 45.1% Over

Season avg: 6.6
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 2.50–11
Over the close: 47%8/17

2026 per game

Targets9.6▲+6.6

Rec6.6▲+4.3

Rec Yds56.8▲+31.2

Rec TD0.8▲+0.7

Snaps48.6▲+11.9

Snap %69.6%▲+12.3

5.5

2024

9

Sep 05
2

Sep 15
1

Sep 22
1

Sep 29
3

Oct 06
2

Oct 13
2

Oct 21
4

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
4

Nov 17
5

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
3

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
4

Jan 19
2025

1

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
2

Oct 26
3

Oct 30
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
5

Nov 27
4

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
2

Jan 04
2026

8

Sep 13
5

Sep 21
2

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
11

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 11% 2/18 · avg 2.8
Away 12% 2/16 · avg 3.6
vs NO No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 32% 11/34
O 4.5 21% 7/34
O 5.5 Today 12% 4/34
O 6.5 12% 4/34
O 7.5 9% 3/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds56.4#12
Receptions6.1#7
Targets8.5#5
Yds/Target6.6#21
Rec TD0.3#19

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	T.J. Hockenson	1	5.5	-82%
Oct 05	Austin Hooper	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	Brock Bowers	10	7.0	+43%
Sep 20	Mark Andrews	6	4.0	+50%
Sep 13	Sam LaPorta	5	5.5	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYG offense

NYG offense: Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%10.9 yds	8%6.3 yds
Short	33%5.8 yds	22%6.1 yds	26%5.5 yds

Share of NYG pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#21	2%15.0 yds#16	8%11.9 yds#13
Short	32%6.6 yds#8	12%5.9 yds#25	38%4.6 yds#28

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%28.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	9%5.7 yds
Short	31%6.6 yds	28%8.2 yds	28%4.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYG targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Isaiah Likely TE	5	9.6	48	29.8%
2	Malik Nabers WR	5	9.2	46	26.9%
3	Malachi Fields WR	5	3.4	17	11.3%
4	Darnell Mooney WR	5	3.4	17	10.2%
5	Devin Singletary RB	2	2.5	5	8.5%
6	Cam Skattebo RB	5	2.4	12	8.2%
7	Theo Johnson TE	4	2.2	9	6.3%
8	Patrick Ricard RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
9	Odell Beckham Jr. WR	1	1.0	1	4.8%
10	Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	5	0.6	3	1.2%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ WAS	11	Over	4.5	71 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	vs ARI	7	Over	3.5	44 (66%)
2026-09-27	3	vs TEN	2	Under	3.5	54 (84%)
2026-09-21	2	@ LA	5	Under	4.5	40 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	vs DAL	8	Over	3.5	34 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	2	Under	1.5	25 (49%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	3	Under	2.5	53 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	22 (40%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	4	Under	3.5	48 (60%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	5	Under	5.5	31 (52%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	1	Under	2.5	36 (57%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	2	Under	2.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	2	Under	2.5	39 (56%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	3	Under	3.5	33 (59%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	2	Under	2.5	36 (58%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	2	Under	0.5	63 (81%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	1	Under	2.5	23 (53%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	4	Under	—	47 (80%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	3	Under	—	59 (80%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	3	Under	—	43 (61%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	1	Under	—	48 (76%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	3	Under	—	41 (66%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	2	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	5	Under	—	36 (50%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	4	Under	—	30 (49%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	0	Under	—	17 (30%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	4	Under	—	47 (69%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	2	Under	—	35 (59%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	2	Under	—	46 (68%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	3	Under	—	55 (71%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	1	Under	—	31 (54%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	1	Under	—	39 (62%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	2	Under	—	32 (49%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	9	Over	—	53 (66%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.