NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Bowers TE

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

6.5 Receptions O -129U +101

Hit rate · All 38%12/32 Odds imply 53.1% Over

Season avg: 8.0
Graph avg: 6.2
Graph median: 5.51–13
Over the close: 33%5/15

2026 per game

Targets11.3▲+4.2

Rec8.0▲+2.7

Rec Yds104.0▲+47.3

Rec TD1.0▲+0.4

Snaps55.3▲+4.9

Snap %77.0%▼-8.9

6.5

2024

6

Sep 08
9

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
2

Sep 29
8

Oct 06
9

Oct 13
10

Oct 20
5

Oct 27
5

Nov 03
13

Nov 17
4

Nov 24
10

Nov 29
3

Dec 08
3

Dec 16
11

Dec 22
7

Dec 29
4

Jan 05
2025

5

Sep 07
5

Sep 15
4

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
12

Nov 02
1

Nov 06
7

Nov 17
6

Nov 23
4

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
6

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
2026

10

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
8

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 5.7
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 6.7
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 69% 22/32
O 5.5 50% 16/32
O 6.5 Today 38% 12/32
O 7.5 31% 10/32
O 8.5 25% 8/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.0#28
Receptions4.1#30
Targets6.7#23
Yds/Target5.7#29
Rec TD0.3#21

TEs vs BUF · 2026

Each main TE who faced BUF this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.0

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Tyler Higbee	5	5.0	+0%
Oct 04	Hunter Henry	5	2.5	+100%
Sep 27	Oronde Gadsden II	0	2.2	-100%
Sep 17	Sam LaPorta	6	5.2	+14%
Sep 13	Dalton Schultz	4	5.0	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%11.0 yds	1%0.0 yds	5%15.5 yds
Short	31%7.0 yds	24%8.5 yds	34%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	8	Over	6.5	42 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	6	Under	6.5	69 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	10	Over	4.5	55 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	5	Under	5.5	53 (98%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	6	Under	4.5	38 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	4	Under	5.5	50 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	4	Under	4.5	47 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	6	Under	2.5	76 (96%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	7	Over	7.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	50 (83%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	12	Over	6.5	52 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	5	Under	5.5	40 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	4	Under	4.5	55 (83%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	5	Under	5.5	54 (77%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	5	Under	6.5	32 (51%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	4	Under	—	48 (94%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	7	Over	—	70 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	11	Over	—	70 (95%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	3	Under	—	63 (94%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	3	Under	—	57 (85%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	10	Over	—	61 (90%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DEN	4	Under	—	72 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	@ MIA	13	Over	—	62 (95%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CIN	5	Under	—	55 (90%)
2024-10-27	8	vs KC	5	Under	—	53 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	@ LA	10	Over	—	66 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs PIT	9	Over	—	50 (79%)
2024-10-06	5	@ DEN	8	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-09-29	4	vs CLE	2	Under	—	48 (81%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	3	Under	—	42 (66%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	9	Over	—	43 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	6	Under	—	41 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.