NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Davante Adams WR

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +115U -147

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 43.9% Over

Season avg: 5.4
Graph avg: 4.4
Graph median: 4.01–8
Over the close: 25%4/16

2026 per game

Targets9.0▲+0.8

Rec5.4▲+1.2

Rec Yds88.2▲+30.9

Rec TD0.8▼-0.1

Snaps56.8▲+10.4

Snap %74.0%▲+2.8

4.5

2025

3

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
5

Oct 02
4

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
5

Nov 02
6

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
4

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
5

Jan 10
2

Jan 18
4

Jan 25
2026

3

Sep 10
8

Sep 21
7

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
5

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 62% 10/16 · avg 4.9
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 5.2
vs ARI 50% 1/2 · avg 5.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 90% 18/20
O 3.5 80% 16/20
O 4.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 5.5 15% 3/20
O 6.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds141.7#17
Receptions9.7#28
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.1#5
Rec TD1.7#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-22%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	7.8	-23%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	5.8	+4%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	5.2	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.0	+12%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.8	-29%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.3	+114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	22%6.2 yds	6%8.8 yds	12%14.2 yds
Short	25%9.0 yds	18%10.9 yds	18%4.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	5	Over	4.5	60 (73%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	4	Under	4.5	80 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	7	Over	5.5	71 (83%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	8	Over	5.5	40 (65%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	3	Under	4.5	33 (54%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	4	Under	4.5	37 (61%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	2	Under	4.5	61 (78%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	5	Over	3.5	55 (72%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	4	Under	4.5	33 (46%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	4	Under	4.5	30 (43%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	4	Under	4.5	39 (75%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	5	Over	5.5	43 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	1	Under	1.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	6	Over	6.5	35 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	5	Over	5.5	48 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	5	Over	6.5	41 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	4	Under	—	42 (79%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	5	Over	—	58 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	4	Under	—	62 (83%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	3	Under	—	57 (86%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5PrizePicks 4

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.