NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Mark Andrews TE

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -112U -114

Hit rate · All 46%19/41 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 4.4
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 3.00–7
Over the close: 46%10/22

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+1.9

Rec4.4▲+1.6

Rec Yds35.4▲+10.6

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps43.0▲+5.9

Snap %65.0%▲+3.3

3.5

2024

4

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
4

Oct 06
3

Oct 13
4

Oct 21
5

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
6

Nov 07
2

Nov 17
5

Nov 25
6

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
4

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
4

Jan 04
2

Jan 11
5

Jan 19
2025

1

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
6

Sep 22
7

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
3

Oct 26
2

Oct 30
3

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
4

Nov 27
1

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
4

Dec 27
2

Jan 04
2026

4

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 3.3
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 3.1
vs CLE 50% 2/4 · avg 3.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 85% 35/41
O 2.5 58% 24/41
O 3.5 Today 46% 19/41
O 4.5 22% 9/41
O 5.5 12% 5/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds56.1#13
Receptions5.9#8
Targets8.0#9
Yds/Target7.0#20
Rec TD0.3#18

TEs vs CLE · 2026

Each main TE who faced CLE this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %+5%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kenyon Sadiq	2	3.0	-33%
Oct 01	Pat Freiermuth	3	4.0	-25%
Sep 27	Darren Waller	5	2.7	+88%
Sep 20	Cade Otton	5	3.2	+54%
Sep 13	Brenton Strange	2	4.8	-58%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	33%5.2 yds	38%7.2 yds	23%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 41 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	4	Over	3.5	55 (72%)
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	5	Over	3.5	37 (58%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	3	Under	4.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	6	Over	4.5	41 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	4	Over	3.5	49 (72%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	2	Under	2.5	30 (59%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	4	Over	3.5	31 (41%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	2	Under	2.5	24 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	2	Under	2.5	17 (41%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	1	Under	3.5	54 (68%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	4	Over	2.5	41 (68%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	1	Under	0.5	42 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	3	Under	3.5	37 (61%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	3	Under	2.5	44 (63%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	2	Under	2.5	28 (50%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	3	Under	3.5	37 (60%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	4	Over	4.5	61 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	2	Under	2.5	25 (58%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	7	Over	6.5	30 (55%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	6	Over	4.5	46 (81%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	1	Under	2.5	45 (80%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	1	Under	2.5	38 (75%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	5	Over	—	41 (69%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	2	Under	—	45 (61%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	4	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	2	Under	—	35 (56%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	4	Over	—	47 (76%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	2	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	6	Over	—	53 (74%)
2024-11-25	12	@ LAC	5	Over	—	27 (42%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	2	Under	—	37 (61%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	6	Over	—	55 (87%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	2	Under	—	28 (49%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	5	Over	—	50 (74%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	4	Over	—	32 (54%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	3	Under	—	34 (50%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	4	Over	—	43 (55%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	0	Under	—	26 (46%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	0	Under	—	21 (33%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	4	Over	—	41 (63%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	2	Under	—	59 (74%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.