NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 38%15/40 Odds imply —

Season avg: 5.4
Graph avg: 4.0
Graph median: 4.00–11
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Carries21.0▲+6.7

Rush Yds100.8▲+28.9

Rush TD1.4▲+0.6

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec5.4▲+0.9

Rec Yds48.6▲+12.4

Snaps52.8▲+9.4

Snap %76.6%▲+9.6

4.5

2024

4

Sep 08
7

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
0

Sep 30
3

Oct 13
4

Oct 20
1

Oct 27
1

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
1

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
2

Nov 28
6

Dec 05
5

Dec 15
4

Dec 22
4

Dec 30
5

Jan 05
6

Jan 18
2025

10

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
5

Sep 22
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
3

Oct 20
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
11

Nov 23
3

Nov 27
7

Dec 04
4

Dec 14
10

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 13
6

Sep 17
7

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 4.5
Away 25% 5/20 · avg 3.5
vs GB 50% 2/4 · avg 5.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 72% 29/40
O 3.5 52% 21/40
O 4.5 Today 38% 15/40
O 5.5 22% 9/40
O 6.5 15% 6/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs GB

What GB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds110.8#2
Yds/Carry4.4#11
Rush TD1.5#1
Targets5.4#17
Rec Yds35.9#9

RBs vs GB · 2026

Each main RB who faced GB this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-24%

Beat their average33% (2/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Javonte Williams	2	3.4	-41%
Oct 11	D'Andre Swift	4	2.8	+43%
Oct 04	Bucky Irving	0	3.4	-100%
Sep 24	Bijan Robinson	2	3.6	-44%
Sep 20	Breece Hall	5	2.5	+100%
Sep 13	Aaron Jones	0	3.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	33%6.2 yds	39%7.9 yds	28%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	5	Over	4.5	46 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	4	Under	4.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	7	Over	4.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	6	Over	4.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	5	Over	4.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	3	Under	3.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	2	Under	4.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	10	Over	5.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	4	Under	5.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	7	Over	7.5	43 (69%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	3	Under	—	44 (70%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	11	Over	8.5	50 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	5	Over	5.5	43 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	3	Under	3.5	35 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	3	Under	4.5	42 (66%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	3	Under	3.5	38 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	1	Under	1.5	37 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	2	Under	3.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	2	Under	3.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	5	Over	5.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	3	Under	2.5	33 (56%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	10	Over	—	44 (66%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	6	Over	—	52 (75%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	5	Over	—	45 (66%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	4	Under	—	37 (52%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	4	Under	—	45 (69%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	5	Over	—	59 (75%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	6	Over	—	45 (56%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	2	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	3	Under	—	48 (67%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	1	Under	—	33 (42%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	2	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	1	Under	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	1	Under	—	19 (40%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	4	Under	—	33 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	3	Under	—	37 (54%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	0	Under	—	30 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	0	Under	—	31 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	7	Over	—	53 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	4	Under	—	31 (51%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.