NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Germie Bernard WR

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +121U -154

Hit rate · Last 5 25%1/4 Odds imply 42.7% Over

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 3.01–6
Over the close: 100%3/3

2026 per game

Targets5.0

Rec3.2

Rec Yds35.0

Rec TD0.0

Snaps39.0

Snap %59.5%

4.5

2026

4

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 01
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 50% 1/2 · avg 3.5
Away 0% 0/2 · avg 3.0
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 50% 2/4
O 3.5 50% 2/4
O 4.5 Today 25% 1/4
O 5.5 25% 1/4
O 6.5 0% 0/4

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TB

What TB allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds128.0#24
Receptions9.7#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.1#15
Rec TD0.7#21

WRs vs TB · 2026

Each main WR who faced TB this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.0

Avg diff %+8%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	CeeDee Lamb	2	9.2	-78%
Oct 08	George Pickens	9	4.5	+100%
Oct 04	Christian Watson	3	5.8	-48%
Oct 04	Matthew Golden	3	5.2	-43%
Sep 27	Justin Jefferson	2	5.7	-65%
Sep 27	Jordan Addison	5	2.0	+150%
Sep 20	KC Concepcion	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 20	Denzel Boston	5	2.8	+82%
Sep 13	Ja'Marr Chase	2	6.2	-68%
Sep 13	Tee Higgins	3	6.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 4 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	5%0.0 yds	5%21.0 yds
Short	25%7.0 yds	35%9.0 yds	25%4.2 yds

Last 4 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 4 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	6	Over	2.5	55 (92%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	2	Under	1.5	29 (40%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	1	Under	—	17 (27%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	4	Under	1.5	55 (79%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.