NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

D'Andre Swift RB

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -105U -121

Hit rate · All 38%15/40 Odds imply 48.3% Over

Season avg: 2.8
Graph avg: 2.3
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 46%10/22

2026 per game

Carries15.6▲+1.4

Rush Yds70.8▲+3.2

Rush TD0.8▲+0.2

Targets3.2▲+0.4

Rec2.8▲+0.8

Rec Yds22.8▲+4.1

Snaps43.2▲+3.8

Snap %57.4%▼-0.3

2.5

2024

0

Sep 08
4

Sep 15
2

Sep 22
7

Sep 29
2

Oct 06
4

Oct 13
0

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
1

Nov 10
2

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
2

Nov 28
1

Dec 08
1

Dec 16
3

Dec 22
4

Dec 26
0

Jan 05
2025

3

Sep 08
3

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
2

Oct 13
1

Oct 19
2

Oct 26
5

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
1

Nov 28
3

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
2

Dec 20
2

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
2

Jan 10
0

Jan 18
2026

1

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 41% 9/22 · avg 2.5
Away 33% 6/18 · avg 2.1
vs ATL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 88% 35/40
O 1.5 65% 26/40
O 2.5 Today 38% 15/40
O 3.5 22% 9/40
O 4.5 10% 4/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.9#20
Yds/Carry4.5#10
Rush TD0.3#32
Targets6.0#10
Rec Yds25.0#27

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+13%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Derrick Henry	1	1.8	-43%
Oct 05	Alvin Kamara	5	2.7	+88%
Sep 24	MarShawn Lloyd	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	2	2.7	-25%
Sep 13	Jaylen Warren	5	3.5	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	31%8.8 yds	15%7.0 yds	54%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	4	Over	2.5	40 (58%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	2	Under	2.5	33 (35%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	2	Under	2.5	50 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	5	Over	1.5	50 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	1	Under	2.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	0	Under	1.5	50 (62%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	2	Under	1.5	39 (50%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	32 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	2	Under	1.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	2	Under	1.5	35 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	1	Under	1.5	37 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	3	Over	—	40 (57%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	1	Under	1.5	46 (53%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	1	Under	1.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	0	Under	0.5	43 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	5	Over	2.5	42 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	2	Under	2.5	31 (49%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	1	Under	2.5	37 (54%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	2	Under	2.5	36 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	4	Over	2.5	45 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	3	Over	2.5	36 (61%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	3	Over	2.5	39 (57%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	3	Over	2.5	54 (81%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	0	Under	—	49 (79%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	4	Over	—	40 (66%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	3	Over	—	47 (73%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	1	Under	—	46 (69%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	1	Under	—	42 (79%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	2	Under	—	46 (69%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	3	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	2	Under	—	41 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	1	Under	—	40 (67%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	6	Over	—	46 (62%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	0	Under	—	46 (73%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	4	Over	—	45 (68%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	2	Under	—	50 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	7	Over	—	38 (63%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	2	Under	—	48 (53%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	4	Over	—	46 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	0	Under	—	39 (70%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.