NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jameson Williams WR

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 3.6
Graph avg: 4.5
Graph median: 4.52–7
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Targets5.8▼-0.2

Rec3.6▼-0.2

Rec Yds55.2▼-10.5

Rec TD0.4-0.0

Snaps62.0▲+3.6

Snap %90.2%+0.0

3.5

2025

7

Dec 04
7

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
6

Jan 04
2026

4

Sep 13
2

Sep 17
4

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 3.7
Away 53% 10/19 · avg 3.7
vs GB 100% 3/3 · avg 5.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 100% 10/10
O 2.5 70% 7/10
O 3.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 4.5 50% 5/10
O 5.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs GB

What GB allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds134.7#21
Receptions12.2#9
Targets19.2#11
Yds/Target7.0#27
Rec TD0.9#13

WRs vs GB · 2026

Each main WR who faced GB this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+45%

Beat their average50% (6/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	CeeDee Lamb	9	7.8	+15%
Oct 18	George Pickens	6	5.4	+11%
Oct 11	Luther Burden III	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 11	Kalif Raymond	3	4.6	-35%
Oct 04	Emeka Egbuka	2	5.2	-62%
Oct 04	Chris Godwin Jr.	6	3.4	+76%
Sep 24	Drake London	9	4.4	+105%
Sep 24	Jahan Dotson	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 20	Garrett Wilson	5	6.0	-17%
Sep 20	Isaiah Williams	6	1.0	+500%
Sep 13	Justin Jefferson	8	3.7	+118%
Sep 13	Jordan Addison	0	3.7	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%8.4 yds	12%14.4 yds	15%18.8 yds
Short	24%6.7 yds	13%10.4 yds	24%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	2	Under	3.5	59 (89%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	6	Over	3.5	70 (99%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	4	Over	3.5	53 (82%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	2	Under	3.5	63 (97%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	4	Over	3.5	65 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	6	Over	5.5	69 (95%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	2	Under	4.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	5	Over	4.5	70 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	7	Over	3.5	58 (91%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	7	Over	5.5	57 (92%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.