NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Downs WR

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -103U -124

Hit rate · All 40%14/35 Odds imply 47.8% Over

Season avg: 4.0
Graph avg: 4.3
Graph median: 4.01–10
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec4.0▲+0.4

Rec Yds49.8▲+14.4

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps52.2▲+15.1

Snap %80.4%▲+21.7

4.5

2024

3

Sep 22
8

Sep 29
9

Oct 06
7

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
7

Nov 10
5

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
3

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
3

Dec 29
10

Jan 05
2025

2

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
3

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
2

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
5

Dec 22
2

Dec 28
4

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 4.2
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 4.4
vs TEN 25% 1/4 · avg 3.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 77% 27/35
O 3.5 51% 18/35
O 4.5 Today 40% 14/35
O 5.5 31% 11/35
O 6.5 17% 6/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds166.2#9
Receptions12.2#9
Targets16.8#21
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#11

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.0

Avg diff %-4%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Nico Collins	5	7.0	-29%
Oct 11	Xavier Hutchinson	4	3.0	+33%
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	8	6.0	+33%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	5	6.0	-17%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	10	4.5	+122%
Sep 20	Makai Lemon	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	6	6.2	-4%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	1	2.5	-60%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%4.8 yds	3%9.0 yds	10%12.0 yds
Short	26%4.2 yds	18%8.8 yds	31%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	3	Under	4.5	60 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	3	Under	6.5	51 (77%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	5	Over	4.5	48 (68%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	7	Over	4.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	2	Under	4.5	48 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	4	Under	—	41 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	2	Under	3.5	35 (61%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	5	Over	5.5	47 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	3	Under	2.5	43 (72%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	4	Under	3.5	46 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	2	Under	2.5	31 (57%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	2	Under	3.5	22 (43%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	36 (47%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	6	Over	3.5	52 (67%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	3	Under	3.5	34 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	6	Over	6.5	30 (51%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	6	Over	3.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	4	Under	3.5	38 (62%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	2	Under	4.5	29 (51%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	6	Over	6.5	41 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	2	Under	4.5	36 (49%)
2025-01-05	18	vs JAX	10	Over	—	59 (76%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NYG	3	Under	—	47 (61%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TEN	3	Under	—	36 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DEN	3	Under	—	58 (76%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DET	3	Under	—	29 (53%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NYJ	5	Over	—	48 (69%)
2024-11-10	10	vs BUF	7	Over	—	44 (69%)
2024-11-03	9	@ MIN	6	Over	—	27 (50%)
2024-10-27	8	@ HOU	4	Under	—	45 (70%)
2024-10-20	7	vs MIA	1	Under	—	38 (61%)
2024-10-13	6	@ TEN	7	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-10-06	5	@ JAX	9	Over	—	43 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	vs PIT	8	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CHI	3	Under	—	32 (57%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.