NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +135U -173

Hit rate · All 36%15/42 Odds imply 40.2% Over

Season avg: 3.3
Graph avg: 3.0
Graph median: 3.00–7
Over the close: 38%9/24

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+2.1

Rec3.3▲+1.4

Rec Yds38.8▲+12.3

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps36.5▲+18.6

Snap %53.7%▲+26.5

3.5

2024

3

Sep 29
6

Oct 06
6

Oct 13
2

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
5

Nov 24
4

Dec 01
3

Dec 15
4

Dec 22
4

Dec 28
3

Jan 05
2025

2

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
2

Oct 05
3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
3

Nov 13
1

Nov 23
3

Dec 01
0

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
1

Jan 11
2

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
5

Feb 08
2026

5

Sep 09
1

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
7

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 3.1
Away 29% 6/21 · avg 2.8
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 76% 32/42
O 2.5 52% 22/42
O 3.5 Today 36% 15/42
O 4.5 19% 8/42
O 5.5 12% 5/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	3	1.6	+88%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	6	4.8	+25%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	3	6.4	-53%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	2	1.8	+11%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	6	6.7	-10%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	2	3.4	-41%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	3	5.3	-44%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	8	5.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	19%4.8 yds	2%0.0 yds	10%18.5 yds
Short	24%5.2 yds	17%9.3 yds	29%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	7	Over	1.5	40 (59%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	4	Over	2.5	37 (49%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	2	Under	2.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	1	Under	3.5	26 (47%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	5	Over	1.5	44 (62%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	5	Over	1.5	29 (41%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	1.5	12 (19%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	2	Under	1.5	17 (26%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	21 (33%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	2	Under	—	15 (25%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	1	Under	2.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	0	Under	1.5	10 (19%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	3	Under	3.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	1	Under	1.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	3	Under	2.5	19 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	2	Under	2.5	13 (21%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	4	Over	4.5	16 (24%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	1	Under	2.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	3	Under	2.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	3	Under	1.5	16 (25%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	2	Under	1.5	17 (28%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	2	Under	—	29 (39%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	1	Under	1.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	2	Under	2.5	45 (63%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	3	Under	—	48 (75%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	4	Over	—	49 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	4	Over	—	43 (59%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	3	Under	—	31 (61%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	4	Over	—	45 (63%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	5	Over	—	47 (68%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	4	Over	—	43 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	4	Over	—	27 (42%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	7	Over	—	49 (71%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	2	Under	—	38 (57%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	2	Under	—	20 (33%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	6	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	6	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	3	Under	—	38 (59%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	7	Over	—	43 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CIN	2	Under	—	39 (60%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.