NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Chuba Hubbard RB

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -114U -112

Hit rate · All 46%16/35 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 2.5
Graph avg: 2.4
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Carries15.2▲+6.1

Rush Yds76.5▲+41.7

Rush TD0.8▲+0.6

Targets2.8▲+0.1

Rec2.5▲+0.5

Rec Yds21.0▲+6.2

Snaps54.8▲+25.2

Snap %76.0%▲+29.2

2.5

2024

0

Sep 08
4

Sep 15
5

Sep 22
4

Sep 29
4

Oct 06
5

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
1

Nov 24
0

Dec 01
4

Dec 08
4

Dec 15
4

Dec 22
2025

3

Sep 07
5

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
2

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
4

Nov 24
2

Nov 30
1

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
2

Jan 03
2

Jan 10
2026

3

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 44% 8/18 · avg 2.4
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 2.5
vs PHI 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 86% 30/35
O 1.5 69% 24/35
O 2.5 Today 46% 16/35
O 3.5 34% 12/35
O 4.5 9% 3/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.0#22
Yds/Carry3.7#24
Rush TD0.6#20
Targets6.4#7
Rec Yds34.9#10

RBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced PHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.7

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bhayshul Tuten	2	1.8	+14%
Oct 04	Kyren Williams	10	4.2	+135%
Sep 28	D'Andre Swift	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 20	Tyjae Spears	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 13	Rachaad White	2	2.7	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	38%2.1 yds	21%15.4 yds	42%7.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	1	Under	2.5	63 (84%)
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	4	Over	2.5	65 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	2	Under	2.5	43 (65%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	3	Over	1.5	48 (71%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	2	Under	2.5	41 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	2	Under	2.5	23 (45%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	3	Over	3.5	20 (38%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	1	Under	2.5	22 (41%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	1	Under	2.5	24 (42%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	2	Under	2.5	38 (59%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	4	Over	1.5	16 (35%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	1	Under	0.5	15 (19%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	1	Under	0.5	11 (21%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	0	Under	—	13 (22%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	35 (57%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	2	Under	1.5	38 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	3	Over	3.5	35 (51%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	2	Under	2.5	36 (62%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	5	Over	2.5	63 (74%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	3	Over	2.5	43 (67%)
2024-12-22	16	vs ARI	4	Over	—	57 (84%)
2024-12-15	15	vs DAL	4	Over	—	52 (95%)
2024-12-08	14	@ PHI	4	Over	—	69 (97%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TB	0	Under	—	55 (79%)
2024-11-24	12	vs KC	1	Under	—	55 (89%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYG	4	Over	—	53 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NO	2	Under	—	42 (79%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DEN	2	Under	—	45 (74%)
2024-10-20	7	@ WAS	0	Under	—	36 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs ATL	5	Over	—	54 (82%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CHI	4	Over	—	39 (65%)
2024-09-29	4	vs CIN	4	Over	—	52 (74%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LV	5	Over	—	43 (58%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LAC	4	Over	—	28 (58%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NO	0	Under	—	32 (54%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.