NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kenneth Walker RB

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +117U -150

Hit rate · Last 20 15%3/20 Odds imply 43.4% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 2.3
Graph median: 2.00–6
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Carries21.8▲+7.4

Rush Yds134.2▲+67.2

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.8▲+2.4

Rec3.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds21.0▲+1.7

Snaps49.0▲+18.0

Snap %74.5%▲+25.2

3.5

2025

1

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
0

Oct 20
2

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
3

Dec 18
2

Dec 28
4

Jan 03
3

Jan 17
4

Jan 25
2

Feb 08
2026

3

Sep 14
6

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 37% 7/19 · avg 3.4
Away 12% 2/16 · avg 2.1
vs LAC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 65% 13/20
O 2.5 45% 9/20
O 3.5 Today 15% 3/20
O 4.5 5% 1/20
O 5.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds84.1#24
Yds/Carry3.6#27
Rush TD0.4#30
Targets5.0#20
Rec Yds29.4#21

RBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-30%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	RJ Harvey	0	5.8	-100%
Oct 04	George Holani	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	Ty Johnson	4	3.0	+33%
Sep 20	Ashton Jeanty	4	4.5	-11%
Sep 13	Tyler Allgeier	2	2.5	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	49%9.9 yds	18%4.4 yds	33%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	1	Under	3.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	3.5	38 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	6	Over	3.5	66 (82%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	3.5	47 (68%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	2	Under	2.5	47 (65%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	4	Over	2.5	42 (63%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	3	Under	1.5	33 (62%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	4	Over	1.5	29 (42%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	2	Under	2.5	31 (47%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	3	Under	1.5	30 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	1	Under	2.5	25 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	1	Under	2.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	3	Under	1.5	37 (55%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	3	Under	1.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	3	Under	1.5	43 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	1	Under	1.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	2	Under	—	29 (57%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	0	Under	—	32 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	19 (35%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	1	Under	2.5	27 (44%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5PrizePicks 3

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.