NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Warren TE

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

5.5 Receptions O +116U -154

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 43.3% Over

Season avg: 6.0
Graph avg: 4.8
Graph median: 5.02–9
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Targets7.2▲+0.6

Rec6.0▲+1.5

Rec Yds42.6▼-5.5

Rec TD0.4▲+0.2

Snaps59.6▲+6.7

Snap %91.0%▲+7.2

5.5

2025

3

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
6

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
8

Nov 09
5

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
3

Dec 22
5

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
9

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 36% 4/11 · avg 5.1
Away 18% 2/11 · avg 4.5
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 3.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 70% 14/20
O 4.5 55% 11/20
O 5.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 6.5 15% 3/20
O 7.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds53.4#15
Receptions5.5#15
Targets7.2#18
Yds/Target7.4#15
Rec TD0.6#7

TEs vs TEN · 2026

Each main TE who faced TEN this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.8

Avg diff %-50%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dalton Schultz	3	5.2	-43%
Oct 04	Mark Andrews	5	4.2	+18%
Sep 27	Isaiah Likely	2	7.8	-74%
Sep 20	Dallas Goedert	1	5.0	-80%
Sep 13	Jeremy Ruckert	1	3.5	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%14.5 yds	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	39%4.7 yds	27%6.7 yds	29%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	7	Over	4.5	67 (94%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	5	Under	5.5	56 (85%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	9	Over	4.5	67 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	6	Over	4.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	3	Under	4.5	50 (93%)
2026-01-04	18	@ HOU	5	Under	—	53 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	5	Under	5.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	3	Under	3.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SEA	3	Under	3.5	49 (82%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	2	Under	4.5	65 (93%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	3	Under	4.5	47 (87%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	5	Under	4.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	8	Over	4.5	68 (88%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	5	Under	5.5	66 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	4	Under	3.5	39 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	4	Under	4.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	6	Over	6.5	52 (88%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	4	Under	4.5	47 (71%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	5	Under	5.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	3	Under	4.5	39 (68%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 5m ago.