NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cole Kmet TE

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O +147U -189

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 38.2% Over

Season avg: 1.0
Graph avg: 1.7
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Targets1.8▼-1.1

Rec1.0▼-0.8

Rec Yds11.2▼-9.8

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps46.8▼-1.7

Snap %60.2%▼-10.6

1.5

2025

3

Sep 28
1

Oct 13
1

Oct 19
1

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
5

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
3

Nov 28
2

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 20
2

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
0

Jan 10
3

Jan 18
2026

2

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
0

Sep 28
2

Oct 04
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 1.9
Away 65% 11/17 · avg 2.5
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 85% 17/20
O 1.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 2.5 20% 4/20
O 3.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds62.0#7
Receptions5.9#9
Targets8.3#7
Yds/Target7.5#13
Rec TD0.5#10

TEs vs ATL · 2026

Each main TE who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Mark Andrews	4	4.5	-11%
Oct 05	Juwan Johnson	6	4.8	+26%
Sep 24	Tucker Kraft	4	4.0	+0%
Sep 20	Darren Waller	3	3.3	-10%
Sep 13	Pat Freiermuth	5	3.5	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.3 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%7.0 yds	26%4.0 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	1	Under	1.5	29 (42%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	2	Over	1.5	68 (73%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	0	Under	1.5	43 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	0	Under	1.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	2	Over	1.5	43 (57%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	3	Over	1.5	62 (77%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	0	Under	0.5	43 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	2	Over	1.5	49 (89%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	2	Over	2.5	40 (61%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	2	Over	1.5	49 (77%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	2	Over	1.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	2	Over	—	53 (76%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	3	Over	1.5	58 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	1	Under	1.5	41 (63%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	5	Over	1.5	59 (79%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	1	Under	1.5	45 (66%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	1	Under	1.5	21 (26%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	1	Under	2.5	28 (41%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	1	Under	1.5	33 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	3	Over	2.5	68 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.