NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Noah Gray TE

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -119U -108

Hit rate · All 56%20/36 Odds imply 51.1% Over

Season avg: 1.5
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 2.00–4
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets2.0▼-0.6

Rec1.5+0.0

Rec Yds15.2▲+2.5

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps38.0▲+3.3

Snap %59.0%▲+6.1

1.5

2024

3

Sep 05
1

Sep 22
4

Sep 29
2

Oct 07
4

Oct 20
3

Oct 27
0

Nov 04
2

Nov 10
4

Nov 17
4

Nov 24
4

Nov 29
4

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
1

Jan 05
3

Jan 18
1

Feb 09
2025

1

Sep 05
1

Sep 14
3

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
2

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
2

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
1

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 14
0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 1.8
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 2.2
vs LAC 67% 2/3 · avg 3.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 89% 32/36
O 1.5 Today 56% 20/36
O 2.5 36% 13/36
O 3.5 17% 6/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds46.4#20
Receptions4.1#28
Targets5.9#30
Yds/Target7.9#8
Rec TD0.2#26

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Evan Engram	4	1.6	+150%
Oct 04	AJ Barner	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 27	Dalton Kincaid	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 20	Michael Mayer	3	4.5	-33%
Sep 13	Trey McBride	9	8.2	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	0%	8%0.0 yds
Short	28%4.7 yds	28%5.3 yds	28%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	3	Over	0.5	33 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	0	Under	1.5	40 (50%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	1	Under	1.5	38 (55%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	3	Over	2.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	1	Under	1.5	21 (49%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	0	Under	1.5	23 (51%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	1	Under	0.5	29 (45%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	3	Over	1.5	31 (32%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	2	Over	2.5	36 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	22 (37%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	2	Over	0.5	38 (55%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	1	Under	1.5	48 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	2	Over	1.5	48 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	1	Under	1.5	41 (56%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	3	Over	1.5	49 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	39 (65%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	1	Under	2.5	25 (41%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	1	Under	—	18 (32%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	3	Over	—	29 (57%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DEN	1	Under	—	4 (12%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	1	Under	—	28 (45%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	1	Under	—	36 (49%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	2	Over	—	41 (55%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	4	Over	—	42 (61%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	4	Over	—	44 (62%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	4	Over	—	44 (59%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	4	Over	—	42 (76%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	2	Over	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	0	Under	—	59 (69%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	3	Over	—	52 (72%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	4	Over	—	47 (67%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	2	Over	—	51 (61%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	4	Over	—	32 (52%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	1	Under	—	37 (50%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	3	Over	—	29 (54%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.