NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jordan Addison WR

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 65%22/34 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.8
Graph avg: 3.5
Graph median: 3.00–9
Over the close: 41%7/17

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.1

Rec2.8▼-0.2

Rec Yds40.8▼-2.8

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps58.2▲+7.2

Snap %91.2%▲+6.1

2.5

2024

3

Sep 08
3

Sep 29
3

Oct 06
3

Oct 20
2

Oct 24
5

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
8

Nov 24
4

Dec 01
8

Dec 08
7

Dec 16
5

Dec 22
6

Dec 29
1

Jan 05
3

Jan 13
2025

4

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
9

Oct 19
3

Oct 23
2

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
5

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 73% 11/15 · avg 3.9
Away 58% 11/19 · avg 3.2
vs IND 100% 1/1 · avg 5.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 91% 31/34
O 1.5 85% 29/34
O 2.5 Today 65% 22/34
O 3.5 41% 14/34
O 4.5 29% 10/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs IND

What IND allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds158.0#12
Receptions11.8#12
Targets18.5#15
Yds/Target8.5#13
Rec TD0.8#22

WRs vs IND · 2026

Each main WR who faced IND this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-12%

Beat their average33% (4/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Carnell Tate	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 18	Wan'Dale Robinson	3	4.4	-32%
Oct 11	DK Metcalf	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Germie Bernard	6	4.5	+33%
Oct 04	Stefon Diggs	5	4.3	+15%
Oct 04	Antonio Williams	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Xavier Hutchinson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Jaylin Noel	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 20	Rashee Rice	4	4.5	-11%
Sep 20	Xavier Worthy	5	4.0	+25%
Sep 13	Zay Flowers	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	Rashod Bateman	0	3.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	27%16.1 yds	4%0.0 yds	8%0.0 yds
Short	25%5.1 yds	12%7.8 yds	23%4.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	4	Over	4.5	75 (96%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	5	Over	3.5	58 (98%)
2026-09-20	2	@ CHI	2	Under	3.5	46 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	0	Under	3.5	54 (83%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	1	Under	2.5	62 (93%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	0	Under	3.5	42 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	2	Under	2.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	2	Under	2.5	35 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	4	Over	1.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	5	Over	3.5	48 (92%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	0	Under	—	43 (98%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	2	Under	1.5	53 (96%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	3	Over	3.5	62 (95%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	2	Under	2.5	57 (92%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	3	Over	4.5	42 (86%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	9	Over	3.5	64 (93%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	5	Over	3.5	49 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	4	Over	3.5	73 (96%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	3	Over	—	68 (92%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	1	Under	—	58 (89%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	6	Over	—	65 (90%)
2024-12-22	16	@ SEA	5	Over	—	59 (89%)
2024-12-16	15	vs CHI	7	Over	—	66 (86%)
2024-12-08	14	vs ATL	8	Over	—	45 (75%)
2024-12-01	13	vs ARI	4	Over	—	50 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CHI	8	Over	—	67 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	@ TEN	3	Over	—	44 (60%)
2024-11-10	10	@ JAX	2	Under	—	62 (74%)
2024-11-03	9	vs IND	5	Over	—	67 (92%)
2024-10-24	8	@ LA	2	Under	—	46 (92%)
2024-10-20	7	vs DET	3	Over	—	51 (85%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYJ	3	Over	—	65 (89%)
2024-09-29	4	@ GB	3	Over	—	45 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NYG	3	Over	—	28 (51%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5PrizePicks 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 13m ago.