NFL Prop Research

TK

Travis Kelce TE

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -104U -123

BookCaesars · 4.5Fanatics · 4.5BetMGM · 4.5ESPN BET · 4.5FanDuel · 4.5DraftKings · 4.5Bally Bet · 4.5

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 48.0% Over

Season avg

4.0

Graph avg

4.5

Graph median

4.01–9

Over the close

25%5/20

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.9

Rec4.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds61.5▲+11.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps52.0▼-1.1

Snap %79.5%▼-2.4

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

• Home 62% 13/21 · avg 5.4
• Away 37% 7/19 · avg 4.6
• vs LAC 75% 3/4 · avg 5.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 2.5 80% 16/20
• O 3.5 65% 13/20
• O 4.5 Today 45% 9/20
• O 5.5 30% 6/20
• O 6.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds46.4#20
• Receptions4.1#28
• Targets5.9#30
• Yds/Target7.9#8
• Rec TD0.2#26

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	DEN Evan Engram	4	1.6	+150%
Oct 04	SEA AJ Barner	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 27	BUF Dalton Kincaid	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 20	LV Michael Mayer	3	4.5	-33%
Sep 13	ARI Trey McBride	9	8.2	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	2%48.0 yds	5%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.4 yds	26%5.7 yds	38%8.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · KC 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Under	4.5	50 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	4.5	41 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	9	Over	3.5	68 (85%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	4.5	49 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	3	Under	3.5	51 (80%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	5	Over	2.5	42 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	1	Under	4.5	35 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	7	Over	4.5	60 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	5	Over	5.5	60 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	4	Under	4.5	84 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	9	Over	9.5	55 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	4	Under	4.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	6	Over	6.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	50 (62%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	6	Over	4.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	7	Over	5.5	51 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	48 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	4	Under	5.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	4	Under	4.5	46 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.