NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Travis Kelce TE

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -104U -123

Hit rate · All 50%20/40 Odds imply 48.0% Over

Season avg: 4.0
Graph avg: 5.0
Graph median: 4.51–14
Over the close: 24%5/21

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.9

Rec4.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds61.5▲+11.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps52.0▼-1.1

Snap %79.5%▼-2.4

4.5

2024

3

Sep 05
1

Sep 15
4

Sep 22
7

Sep 29
9

Oct 07
4

Oct 20
10

Oct 27
14

Nov 04
8

Nov 10
2

Nov 17
6

Nov 24
7

Nov 29
5

Dec 08
4

Dec 15
5

Dec 21
8

Dec 25
7

Jan 18
2

Jan 26
4

Feb 09
2025

2

Sep 05
4

Sep 14
4

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
7

Oct 06
6

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
6

Oct 27
4

Nov 02
9

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
5

Nov 27
1

Dec 07
7

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
5

Dec 25
3

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 14
9

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 5.4
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 4.6
vs LAC 75% 3/4 · avg 5.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 32/40
O 3.5 70% 28/40
O 4.5 Today 50% 20/40
O 5.5 38% 15/40
O 6.5 30% 12/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds46.4#20
Receptions4.1#28
Targets5.9#30
Yds/Target7.9#8
Rec TD0.2#26

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Evan Engram	4	1.6	+150%
Oct 04	AJ Barner	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 27	Dalton Kincaid	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 20	Michael Mayer	3	4.5	-33%
Sep 13	Trey McBride	9	8.2	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	2%48.0 yds	5%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.4 yds	26%5.7 yds	38%8.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Under	4.5	50 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Under	4.5	41 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	9	Over	3.5	68 (85%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	3	Under	4.5	49 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	3	Under	3.5	51 (80%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	5	Over	2.5	42 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	1	Under	4.5	35 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	7	Over	4.5	60 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	5	Over	5.5	60 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	4	Under	4.5	84 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	9	Over	9.5	55 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	4	Under	4.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	6	Over	6.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	50 (62%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	6	Over	4.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	7	Over	5.5	51 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Over	5.5	48 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	4	Under	5.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	4	Under	4.5	46 (77%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	2	Under	5.5	51 (84%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	4	Under	—	53 (95%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	2	Under	—	61 (92%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	7	Over	—	39 (76%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	8	Over	—	55 (89%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	5	Over	—	65 (88%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	4	Under	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	5	Over	—	57 (83%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	7	Over	—	64 (90%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	6	Over	—	66 (89%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	2	Under	—	44 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	8	Over	—	57 (84%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	14	Over	—	71 (84%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	10	Over	—	57 (79%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	4	Under	—	54 (77%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	9	Over	—	65 (77%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	7	Over	—	54 (87%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	4	Under	—	57 (77%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	1	Under	—	59 (91%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	3	Under	—	48 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.