NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Wilson WR

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

5.5 Receptions O +114U -145

Hit rate · Last 20 25%5/20 Odds imply 44.1% Over

Season avg: 5.8
Graph avg: 5.2
Graph median: 4.01–15
Over the close: 56%9/16

2026 per game

Targets10.2▲+2.8

Rec5.8▲+1.2

Rec Yds57.6▼-1.6

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps63.0▲+8.7

Snap %90.0%▲+8.6

5.5

2025

1

Sep 21
3

Sep 25
2

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
3

Nov 03
4

Nov 09
15

Nov 16
10

Nov 23
3

Nov 30
11

Dec 07
5

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
5

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
2026

5

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
11

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 5.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 4.1
Away 10% 2/20 · avg 4.0
vs LAR 25% 1/4 · avg 5.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 60% 12/20
O 4.5 45% 9/20
O 5.5 Today 25% 5/20
O 6.5 25% 5/20
O 7.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds129.6#23
Receptions9.3#30
Targets16.1#28
Yds/Target8.0#16
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-8%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	3	3.8	-20%
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	1	3.5	-71%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	3	3.5	-14%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	2	4.0	-50%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	7.0	-86%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	6	4.5	+33%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6	2.5	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.1 yds	1%0.0 yds	14%10.5 yds
Short	27%7.5 yds	7%5.3 yds	36%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 5.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	4	Under	6.5	61 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	7	Over	5.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	11	Over	—	81 (93%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	2	Under	4.5	47 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	5	Under	—	64 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	5	Under	4.5	51 (93%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	5	Under	4.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	2	Under	4.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	5	Under	5.5	56 (85%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	11	Over	5.5	49 (79%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	3	Under	3.5	57 (93%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	10	Over	9.5	69 (82%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	15	Over	3.5	65 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	4	Under	2.5	70 (92%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	3	Under	—	48 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	3	Under	—	62 (82%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	4	Under	2.5	55 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	2	Under	2.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	3	Under	2.5	65 (97%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	49 (74%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.