NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tommy Tremble TE

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 40%12/30 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.8
Graph avg: 2.1
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets3.8▲+1.2

Rec2.8▲+0.9

Rec Yds20.5▲+3.6

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps37.5▼-2.0

Snap %52.8%▼-8.9

2.5

2024

3

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
1

Oct 06
2

Oct 27
1

Nov 24
5

Dec 01
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
2

Jan 05
2025

1

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 30
2

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
3

Jan 03
3

Jan 10
2026

3

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 47% 7/15 · avg 2.3
Away 33% 5/15 · avg 1.9
vs PHI 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 97% 29/30
O 1.5 57% 17/30
O 2.5 Today 40% 12/30
O 3.5 13% 4/30
O 4.5 7% 2/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds34.3#31
Receptions4.3#25
Targets5.9#29
Yds/Target5.8#28
Rec TD0.1#31

TEs vs PHI · 2026

Each main TE who faced PHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.9

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Brenton Strange	7	3.5	+100%
Oct 04	Tyler Higbee	5	5.0	+0%
Sep 28	Colston Loveland	4	2.2	+78%
Sep 20	Gunnar Helm	2	1.8	+14%
Sep 13	Chig Okonkwo	2	3.0	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	3%0.0 yds	0%
Short	33%6.4 yds	10%9.3 yds	50%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	4	Over	1.5	38 (51%)
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	3	Over	1.5	37 (48%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	1	Under	1.5	37 (56%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	3	Over	1.5	38 (56%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	3	Over	3.5	54 (81%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	3	Over	2.5	46 (90%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	1	Under	1.5	41 (77%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	1	Under	0.5	23 (43%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	2	Under	1.5	28 (49%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	1	Under	1.5	36 (56%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	1	Under	1.5	46 (57%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	0	Under	—	32 (55%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	1	Under	1.5	28 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	1	Under	1.5	47 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	4	Over	4.5	49 (73%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	1	Under	1.5	53 (76%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	5	Over	3.5	52 (75%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	2	Under	1.5	33 (57%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	3	Over	—	35 (41%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	29 (45%)
2025-01-05	18	@ ATL	2	Under	—	40 (60%)
2024-12-22	16	vs ARI	3	Over	—	51 (75%)
2024-12-15	15	vs DAL	2	Under	—	35 (64%)
2024-12-08	14	@ PHI	1	Under	—	46 (65%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TB	5	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs KC	1	Under	—	51 (82%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DEN	2	Under	—	37 (61%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CHI	1	Under	—	17 (28%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LV	3	Over	—	64 (86%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LAC	3	Over	—	22 (46%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 12m ago.