NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DJ Moore WR

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -130U +102

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 53.3% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 3.0
Graph median: 3.50–6
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets5.0▼-0.3

Rec3.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds44.5▲+2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▼-25.1

Snap %52.5%▼-31.7

3.5

2025

4

Sep 28
3

Oct 13
3

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
4

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
2

Nov 28
1

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
5

Dec 20
1

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
6

Jan 10
5

Jan 18
2026

5

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 64% 14/22 · avg 4.1
Away 67% 12/18 · avg 4.5
vs LV 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 65% 13/20
O 2.5 60% 12/20
O 3.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 4.5 30% 6/20
O 5.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds146.7#14
Receptions10.3#21
Targets16.9#20
Yds/Target8.7#11
Rec TD0.6#26

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Romeo Doubs	1	3.0	-67%
Oct 11	DeMario Douglas	4	2.2	+78%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	4	3.3	+20%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	5	2.0	+150%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	9	7.5	+20%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	3	5.5	-45%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	3	5.0	-40%
Sep 13	Kevin Coleman Jr.	0	1.7	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.1 yds	10%11.2 yds	7%20.5 yds
Short	18%7.4 yds	21%5.2 yds	30%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	3.5	23 (39%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	6	Over	3.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	4.5	23 (31%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	5	Over	3.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	5	Over	2.5	58 (72%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	6	Over	5.5	67 (86%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	47 (85%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	5	Over	2.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	4	Over	4.5	58 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	1	Under	—	58 (83%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	2	Under	1.5	79 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	5	Over	5.5	50 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	1	Under	1.5	61 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	0	Under	1.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	4	Over	4.5	68 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	4	Over	3.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	3	Under	3.5	60 (87%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	3	Under	3.5	60 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	4	Over	4.5	52 (76%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5PrizePicks 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.