NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Courtland Sutton WR

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

3.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 62%26/42 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 4.3
Graph median: 4.01–8
Over the close: 33%8/24

2026 per game

Targets4.7▼-2.6

Rec2.2▼-2.1

Rec Yds20.5▼-36.7

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps47.7▼-9.7

Snap %77.8%▼-7.9

3.5

2024

7

Sep 22
3

Sep 29
2

Oct 06
4

Oct 13
8

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
6

Nov 10
7

Nov 17
8

Nov 24
6

Dec 02
3

Dec 15
5

Dec 19
5

Dec 28
5

Jan 05
5

Jan 12
2025

6

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
5

Sep 29
8

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
6

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
3

Nov 06
4

Nov 16
5

Nov 30
6

Dec 07
7

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
4

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
4

Jan 17
3

Jan 25
2026

2

Sep 14
3

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
2

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 59% 13/22 · avg 4.2
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 4.3
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 86% 36/42
O 2.5 76% 32/42
O 3.5 Today 62% 26/42
O 4.5 48% 20/42
O 5.5 33% 14/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds133.9#22
Receptions9.4#30
Targets14.9#30
Yds/Target9.0#6
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average17% (2/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	6	10.3	-42%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	7.8	-23%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	7.0	-14%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	5.2	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.0	+12%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.8	-29%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.1 yds	6%0.0 yds	13%3.6 yds
Short	30%2.8 yds	4%4.5 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	2	Under	3.5	46 (77%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	2	Under	3.5	50 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	1	Under	3.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	3	Under	3.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	3	Under	3.5	45 (73%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	3.5	39 (76%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	3	Under	4.5	54 (93%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	4	Over	4.5	61 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	46 (78%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	4	Over	4.5	59 (82%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	6	Over	4.5	62 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	7	Over	—	60 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	6	Over	4.5	48 (65%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	5	Over	3.5	57 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	4	Over	3.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	3	Under	3.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	1	Under	2.5	58 (92%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	4	Over	2.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	6	Over	4.5	76 (94%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	1	Under	1.5	48 (80%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	8	Over	4.5	70 (95%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	5	Over	6.5	69 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	6	Over	6.5	42 (81%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	1	Under	1.5	45 (78%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	6	Over	4.5	72 (95%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	5	Over	—	41 (98%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	5	Over	—	48 (65%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	5	Over	—	56 (93%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	5	Over	—	58 (91%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	3	Under	—	57 (90%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	6	Over	—	62 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	8	Over	—	58 (85%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	7	Over	—	52 (84%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	6	Over	—	54 (93%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	7	Over	—	61 (85%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	8	Over	—	61 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	4	Over	—	47 (85%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	2	Under	—	51 (81%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	3	Under	—	48 (79%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	7	Over	—	50 (74%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	1	Under	—	54 (89%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	4	Over	—	63 (91%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.