NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Kincaid TE

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +122U -156

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 42.5% Over

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 3.3
Graph median: 3.00–7
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-0.1

Rec3.2▼-0.2

Rec Yds55.4▲+6.7

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps43.0▲+16.7

Snap %66.8%▲+28.1

4.5

2024

2

Jan 26
2025

4

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
5

Sep 18
1

Sep 28
6

Oct 05
1

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
4

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
6

Jan 17
2026

5

Sep 13
7

Sep 17
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
1

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 3.3
Away 24% 4/17 · avg 3.2
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 60% 12/20
O 3.5 45% 9/20
O 4.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 5.5 20% 4/20
O 6.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LV

What LV allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds47.9#18
Receptions5.8#10
Targets7.3#14
Yds/Target6.6#22
Rec TD0.9#4

TEs vs LV · 2026

Each main TE who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Hunter Henry	3	3.0	+0%
Oct 04	Travis Kelce	2	4.7	-57%
Sep 27	Juwan Johnson	8	4.2	+88%
Sep 20	Oronde Gadsden II	2	1.8	+14%
Sep 13	Greg Dulcich	2	3.7	-45%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.0 yds	10%16.2 yds	12%15.6 yds
Short	32%13.4 yds	20%9.0 yds	18%9.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	1	Under	4.5	45 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	4.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	2	Under	4.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	7	Over	4.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	5	Over	3.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	6	Over	3.5	38 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	3	Under	3.5	28 (44%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	3	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	19 (38%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Under	3.5	25 (36%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	4	Under	2.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Under	4.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	6	Over	5.5	23 (35%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	14 (22%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	6	Over	4.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	1	Under	2.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	5	Over	5.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	4	Under	3.5	36 (48%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	4	Under	3.5	43 (51%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	2	Under	—	33 (45%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.