NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

A.J. Brown WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -158U +118

Hit rate · All 60%21/35 Odds imply 57.2% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 4.7
Graph median: 5.01–10
Over the close: 41%7/17

2026 per game

Targets7.0▼-1.0

Rec3.0▼-2.1

Rec Yds26.5▼-37.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps41.5▼-15.8

Snap %60.0%▼-31.2

4.5

2024

5

Sep 06
6

Oct 13
5

Oct 20
5

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
5

Nov 10
5

Nov 14
6

Nov 24
5

Dec 01
4

Dec 08
8

Dec 15
8

Dec 22
3

Dec 29
1

Jan 12
2

Jan 19
6

Jan 26
3

Feb 09
2025

1

Sep 04
5

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
6

Oct 09
4

Oct 19
2

Nov 10
7

Nov 16
8

Nov 23
10

Nov 28
6

Dec 08
2

Dec 14
9

Dec 20
5

Dec 28
3

Jan 11
2026

3

Sep 09
3

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 4.3
Away 75% 12/16 · avg 5.2
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 10.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 28/35
O 3.5 66% 23/35
O 4.5 Today 60% 21/35
O 5.5 34% 12/35
O 6.5 17% 6/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	3	1.6	+88%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	6	4.8	+25%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	3	6.4	-53%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	2	1.8	+11%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	6	6.7	-10%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	2	3.4	-41%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	3	5.3	-44%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	8	5.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%8.6 yds	8%11.1 yds	10%7.4 yds
Short	31%7.4 yds	11%9.4 yds	30%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	3	Under	3.5	52 (76%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	3	Under	5.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	3	Under	3.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	5	Over	5.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	9	Over	9.5	61 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	2	Under	1.5	50 (72%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	6	Over	5.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	10	Over	4.5	52 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	8	Over	6.5	59 (94%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	7	Over	6.5	67 (93%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	2	Under	—	49 (78%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	4	Under	4.5	46 (92%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	6	Over	7.5	55 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	5	Over	4.5	57 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	2	Under	4.5	55 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	6	Over	3.5	62 (93%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	5	Over	5.5	58 (97%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	1	Under	4.5	55 (87%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	3	Under	—	65 (88%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs WAS	6	Over	—	63 (89%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs LA	2	Under	—	61 (97%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	1	Under	—	56 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs DAL	3	Under	—	59 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	@ WAS	8	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	8	Over	—	73 (91%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	4	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	5	Over	—	54 (96%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	6	Over	—	65 (89%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	5	Over	—	69 (97%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	5	Over	—	50 (74%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	2	Under	—	37 (47%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CIN	5	Over	—	50 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	5	Over	—	51 (77%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	6	Over	—	57 (92%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	5	Over	—	72 (95%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.