NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

6.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 8.2
Graph avg: 7.2
Graph median: 8.02–12
Over the close: 56%10/18

2026 per game

Targets11.0▲+1.6

Rec8.2▲+1.4

Rec Yds119.5▲+19.9

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps55.7▲+7.1

Snap %84.7%▲+7.7

6.5

2025

8

Oct 20
8

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
9

Nov 16
8

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
7

Dec 07
7

Dec 14
8

Dec 18
9

Dec 28
6

Jan 03
3

Jan 17
10

Jan 25
4

Feb 08
2026

8

Sep 09
9

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
12

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

Home 46% 10/22 · avg 6.1
Away 62% 13/21 · avg 7.2
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 85% 17/20
O 5.5 70% 14/20
O 6.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 7.5 55% 11/20
O 8.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds112.7#31
Receptions9.5#29
Targets17.4#21
Yds/Target6.5#30
Rec TD0.2#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-9%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Ladd McConkey	1	3.0	-67%
Oct 18	Quentin Johnston	1	1.8	-43%
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	4	4.0	+0%
Oct 04	Cody White	2	1.0	+100%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	5	4.5	+11%
Sep 27	Kevin Coleman Jr.	1	1.3	-25%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	1	6.2	-84%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	7	3.4	+106%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	1	4.2	-76%
Sep 14	Courtland Sutton	2	2.2	-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%6.3 yds	7%16.4 yds	7%29.6 yds
Short	34%8.3 yds	17%9.2 yds	29%7.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	12	Over	6.5	78 (92%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	5	Under	6.5	53 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	5	Under	6.5	53 (88%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	10	Over	6.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	9	Over	6.5	47 (67%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	8	Over	6.5	45 (90%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	4	Under	6.5	50 (69%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	10	Over	6.5	55 (82%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	3	Under	6.5	38 (72%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	6	Under	6.5	57 (83%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	9	Over	6.5	59 (89%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	8	Over	6.5	65 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	7	Over	6.5	55 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	7	Over	6.5	44 (72%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	2	Under	6.5	55 (82%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	8	Over	8.5	38 (79%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	9	Over	7.5	70 (83%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	5	Under	7.5	26 (42%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	8	Over	—	34 (67%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	8	Over	—	63 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5Underdog 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.