NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Mayer TE

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +119U -152

Hit rate · All 24%7/29 Odds imply 43.1% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 2.7
Graph median: 2.00–9
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+1.2

Rec4.2▲+1.5

Rec Yds34.2▲+9.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps56.4▲+20.6

Snap %81.0%▲+19.2

3.5

2024

2

Sep 08
1

Sep 15
1

Sep 22
1

Nov 17
2

Nov 24
1

Nov 29
7

Dec 08
1

Dec 16
0

Dec 22
1

Dec 29
4

Jan 05
2025

4

Sep 07
2

Sep 15
0

Sep 21
5

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 06
3

Nov 17
1

Nov 23
0

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
9

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
8

Oct 04
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 3.4
Away 13% 2/15 · avg 1.9
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 55% 16/29
O 2.5 45% 13/29
O 3.5 Today 24% 7/29
O 4.5 17% 5/29
O 5.5 14% 4/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.0#28
Receptions4.1#30
Targets6.7#23
Yds/Target5.7#29
Rec TD0.3#21

TEs vs BUF · 2026

Each main TE who faced BUF this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.0

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Tyler Higbee	5	5.0	+0%
Oct 04	Hunter Henry	5	2.5	+100%
Sep 27	Oronde Gadsden II	0	2.2	-100%
Sep 17	Sam LaPorta	6	5.2	+14%
Sep 13	Dalton Schultz	4	5.0	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%21.0 yds	0%	6%7.7 yds
Short	19%3.3 yds	29%9.9 yds	44%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	1	Under	3.5	39 (65%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	8	Over	2.5	74 (88%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	3	Under	2.5	61 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	3	Under	5.5	53 (84%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	6	Over	4.5	55 (81%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	3	Under	3.5	59 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	9	Over	10.5	55 (93%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	1	Under	1.5	36 (67%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	0	Under	0.5	8 (19%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	1	Under	1.5	13 (16%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	3	Under	3.5	46 (77%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	3	Under	3.5	37 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	3	Under	2.5	53 (83%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	1	Under	4.5	33 (94%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	5	Over	3.5	56 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	0	Under	1.5	5 (8%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	2	Under	2.5	24 (34%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	4	Over	1.5	40 (63%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	4	Over	—	41 (80%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	1	Under	—	58 (75%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	0	Under	—	45 (61%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	1	Under	—	47 (70%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	7	Over	—	54 (81%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	1	Under	—	43 (63%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DEN	2	Under	—	34 (44%)
2024-11-17	11	@ MIA	1	Under	—	34 (52%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	1	Under	—	31 (48%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	1	Under	—	39 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	2	Under	—	34 (57%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.