NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ashton Jeanty RB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -111U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 49.7% Over

Season avg: 4.4
Graph avg: 3.6
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Carries17.6▲+2.0

Rush Yds58.2▲+0.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets6.0▲+1.7

Rec4.4▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.0▲+22.6

Snaps49.6▲+4.2

Snap %71.8%▼-6.1

3.5

2025

0

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
5

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
5

Nov 02
3

Nov 06
6

Nov 17
8

Nov 23
6

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 46% 5/11 · avg 4.1
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 2.9
vs BUF No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 85% 17/20
O 2.5 65% 13/20
O 3.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 4.5 35% 7/20
O 5.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds81.2#25
Yds/Carry3.9#21
Rush TD0.5#21
Targets7.6#1
Rec Yds43.2#2

RBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main RB who faced BUF this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Kyren Williams	6	5.2	+14%
Oct 04	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Keaton Mitchell	3	2.2	+33%
Sep 17	Jahmyr Gibbs	6	5.2	+14%
Sep 13	Woody Marks	1	2.5	-60%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%60.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	39%6.3 yds	33%5.2 yds	26%3.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	3	Under	3.5	32 (53%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	6	Over	3.5	56 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	3	Under	3.5	59 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	4	Over	3.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	6	Over	3.5	50 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	3	Under	2.5	60 (97%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	2	Under	3.5	48 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	1	Under	3.5	50 (93%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	4	Over	3.5	30 (71%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	2	Under	4.5	35 (70%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	6	Over	5.5	46 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	8	Over	7.5	64 (81%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	6	Over	3.5	44 (73%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	3	Under	2.5	52 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	5	Over	4.5	58 (91%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	1	Under	3.5	22 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	2	Under	2.5	48 (79%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	5	Over	2.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	2	Under	2.5	44 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	0	Under	0.5	40 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.