NFL Prop Research

DW

Darnell Washington TE

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O +101U -129

BookCaesars · 2.5ESPN BET · 2.5BetMGM · 2.5Fanatics · 2.5FanDuel · 2.5DraftKings · 2.5Bally Bet · 2.5

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 46.9% Over

Season avg

2.2

Graph avg

2.2

Graph median

2.00–4

Over the close

44%7/16

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-0.1

Rec2.2▼-0.2

Rec Yds26.2▼-1.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps43.2▲+7.0

Snap %65.4%▲+4.9

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

• Home 44% 7/16 · avg 2.2
• Away 25% 4/16 · avg 1.7
• vs TB No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 0.5 95% 19/20
• O 1.5 70% 14/20
• O 2.5 Today 45% 9/20
• O 3.5 10% 2/20
• O 4.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TB

What TB allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds68.8#5
• Receptions6.5#5
• Targets8.7#4
• Yds/Target7.9#7
• Rec TD0.9#5

TEs vs TB · 2026

Each main TE who faced TB this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.7

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	DAL Jake Ferguson	3	3.0	+0%
Oct 04	GB Tucker Kraft	6	3.5	+71%
Sep 27	MIN T.J. Hockenson	2	5.2	-62%
Sep 20	CLE Harold Fannin Jr.	5	3.2	+54%
Sep 13	CIN Mike Gesicki	5	2.3	+114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	6%23.5 yds	0%
Short	16%8.0 yds	23%8.6 yds	52%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · PIT 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	2	Under	2.5	38 (63%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Over	1.5	51 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	3	Over	1.5	47 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	1	Under	1.5	37 (53%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	2	Under	1.5	43 (64%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	2	Under	2.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	3	Over	2.5	50 (68%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	3	Over	3.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	1	Under	2.5	15 (29%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	2	Under	2.5	34 (79%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	2	Under	2.5	49 (68%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	4	Over	1.5	46 (71%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	25 (48%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	4	Over	0.5	41 (66%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	3	Over	2.5	36 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	3	Over	3.5	47 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	3	Over	—	48 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	0	Under	—	23 (37%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ BAL	1	Under	—	21 (46%)
2024-12-25	17	vs KC	1	Under	—	26 (35%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.