NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -142U +111

Hit rate · All 66%25/38 Odds imply 55.3% Over

Season avg: 1.6
Graph avg: 2.2
Graph median: 2.00–6
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Carries13.6▼-0.6

Rush Yds54.6▼-9.0

Rush TD0.2▼-0.1

Targets2.4-0.0

Rec1.6▼-0.3

Rec Yds4.8▼-7.3

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %52.2%▼-10.3

1.5

2024

3

Sep 08
5

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
2

Sep 30
3

Oct 13
2

Oct 20
3

Oct 27
3

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
2

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
4

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
2

Dec 22
0

Jan 05
2025

1

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
6

Oct 19
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 23
1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 55% 11/20 · avg 1.9
Away 78% 14/18 · avg 2.4
vs IND 75% 3/4 · avg 2.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 84% 32/38
O 1.5 Today 66% 25/38
O 2.5 42% 16/38
O 3.5 16% 6/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#11
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets5.3#18
Rec Yds33.3#15

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+70%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Warren	6	3.2	+85%
Oct 04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	2	0.8	+167%
Sep 27	Woody Marks	1	2.5	-60%
Sep 20	Kenneth Walker III	6	2.0	+200%
Sep 13	Derrick Henry	1	1.8	-43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%2.8 yds	19%2.8 yds	42%4.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	0	Under	1.5	30 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	2	Over	1.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	4	Over	1.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	1	Under	1.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	3	Over	2.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	2	Over	1.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	0	Under	1.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	1	Under	0.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	4	Over	1.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	3	Over	1.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	1	Under	0.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	1	Under	0.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	6	Over	1.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	3	Over	1.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	3	Over	3.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	2	Over	2.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	0	Under	2.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	1	Under	2.5	51 (89%)
2025-01-05	18	vs HOU	0	Under	—	45 (73%)
2024-12-22	16	@ IND	2	Over	—	24 (39%)
2024-12-15	15	vs CIN	0	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs JAX	2	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-01	13	@ WAS	4	Over	—	40 (73%)
2024-11-24	12	@ HOU	3	Over	—	63 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs MIN	2	Over	—	37 (63%)
2024-11-10	10	@ LAC	4	Over	—	29 (54%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NE	3	Over	—	66 (86%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DET	3	Over	—	62 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ BUF	2	Over	—	65 (89%)
2024-10-13	6	vs IND	3	Over	—	43 (74%)
2024-09-30	4	@ MIA	2	Over	—	39 (60%)
2024-09-22	3	vs GB	3	Over	—	34 (63%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NYJ	5	Over	—	44 (67%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CHI	3	Over	—	39 (61%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.