NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Parker Washington WR

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

4.5 Receptions O -116U -110

Hit rate · All 33%12/36 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 4.4
Graph avg: 3.3
Graph median: 3.00–8
Over the close: 38%8/21

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+0.7

Rec4.4▲+0.6

Rec Yds70.4▲+14.3

Rec TD0.8▲+0.4

Snaps48.2▲+6.3

Snap %77.0%▲+15.1

4.5

2024

1

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
2

Sep 23
0

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
3

Oct 27
3

Nov 03
1

Nov 17
6

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
3

Dec 15
6

Dec 22
3

Dec 29
2

Jan 05
2025

0

Sep 07
5

Sep 14
4

Sep 21
0

Sep 28
2

Oct 06
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 19
8

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
1

Nov 30
3

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
8

Dec 28
5

Jan 04
7

Jan 11
2026

5

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 28% 5/18 · avg 3.2
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 3.4
vs HOU 33% 1/3 · avg 4.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 58% 21/36
O 3.5 39% 14/36
O 4.5 Today 33% 12/36
O 5.5 22% 8/36
O 6.5 11% 4/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds167.2#8
Receptions11.8#13
Targets18.9#9
Yds/Target8.8#9
Rec TD1.1#8

WRs vs HOU · 2026

Each main WR who faced HOU this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Carnell Tate	1	5.5	-82%
Oct 11	Wan'Dale Robinson	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 04	George Pickens	2	6.2	-68%
Oct 04	CeeDee Lamb	17	5.5	+209%
Sep 27	Keenan Allen	6	4.0	+50%
Sep 27	Josh Downs	5	3.8	+33%
Sep 20	Tee Higgins	5	5.5	-9%
Sep 20	Ja'Marr Chase	7	5.0	+40%
Sep 13	Khalil Shakir	4	3.5	+14%
Sep 13	Keon Coleman	1	3.5	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	19%8.9 yds	11%20.8 yds	8%15.7 yds
Short	29%7.5 yds	11%7.1 yds	22%12.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	6	Over	4.5	59 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	1	Under	5.5	49 (80%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	3	Under	5.5	50 (81%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	7	Over	4.5	48 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	5	Over	4.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	7	Over	7.5	40 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	5	Over	3.5	45 (74%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	8	Over	8.5	56 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	6	Over	6.5	39 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	3	Under	2.5	28 (45%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	1	Under	3.5	24 (38%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	5	Over	1.5	52 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	2	Under	2.5	54 (76%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	3	Under	3.5	54 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	8	Over	6.5	70 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	4	Under	1.5	68 (88%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	2	Under	2.5	25 (33%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	2	Under	2.5	15 (26%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	58 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	4	Under	4.5	50 (71%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	5	Over	—	17 (24%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	0	Under	1.5	17 (26%)
2025-01-05	18	@ IND	2	Under	—	59 (86%)
2024-12-29	17	vs TEN	3	Under	—	48 (83%)
2024-12-22	16	@ LV	6	Over	—	63 (94%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NYJ	3	Under	—	72 (86%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TEN	2	Under	—	44 (75%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	6	Over	—	56 (80%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DET	1	Under	—	28 (58%)
2024-11-03	9	@ PHI	3	Under	—	46 (85%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	3	Under	—	42 (74%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NE	0	Under	—	21 (34%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	0	Under	—	18 (29%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	2	Under	—	22 (31%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	0	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-09-08	1	@ MIA	1	Under	—	7 (13%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 4.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.