NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trey McBride TE

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

7.5 Receptions O +118U -151

Hit rate · All 47%18/38 Odds imply 43.3% Over

Season avg: 8.4
Graph avg: 7.3
Graph median: 7.03–12
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Targets11.2▲+1.3

Rec8.4▲+1.0

Rec Yds61.6▼-11.3

Rec TD0.6-0.0

Snaps62.6▲+1.8

Snap %89.2%▼-2.2

7.5

2024

5

Sep 08
6

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
6

Oct 06
8

Oct 13
5

Oct 21
9

Oct 27
3

Nov 03
4

Nov 10
12

Nov 24
12

Dec 01
7

Dec 08
9

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
12

Dec 28
7

Jan 05
2025

6

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
5

Sep 21
7

Sep 25
5

Oct 05
8

Oct 12
10

Oct 19
5

Nov 03
9

Nov 09
10

Nov 16
9

Nov 23
8

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
12

Dec 14
4

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
7

Jan 04
2026

9

Sep 13
8

Sep 20
9

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
9

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 33% 6/18 · avg 6.5
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 8.1
vs LAR 25% 1/4 · avg 7.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 71% 27/38
O 6.5 60% 23/38
O 7.5 Today 47% 18/38
O 8.5 37% 14/38
O 9.5 18% 7/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds34.9#30
Receptions4.1#29
Targets7.2#19
Yds/Target4.8#32
Rec TD0.3#20

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.2

Avg diff %-72%

Beat their average0% (0/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Dalton Kincaid	1	3.8	-73%
Oct 04	Johnny Mundt	0	1.0	-100%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	2.4	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	5	7.0	-29%
Sep 10	George Kittle	2	4.8	-58%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.2 yds	2%18.0 yds	8%6.8 yds
Short	26%5.2 yds	22%7.1 yds	38%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	9	Over	8.5	66 (90%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	7	Under	6.5	64 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	9	Over	7.5	79 (91%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	8	Over	6.5	44 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	9	Over	6.5	60 (80%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	7	Under	6.5	52 (95%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	10	Over	8.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	4	Under	4.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	12	Over	12.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	5	Under	7.5	60 (97%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	8	Over	6.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	9	Over	8.5	74 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	10	Over	7.5	70 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	9	Over	6.5	64 (84%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	5	Under	—	59 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	10	Over	—	66 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	8	Over	8.5	66 (90%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	5	Under	6.5	61 (90%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	7	Under	6.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	5	Under	6.5	58 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	6	Under	6.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	6	Under	6.5	64 (97%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	7	Under	—	58 (89%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	12	Over	—	73 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	3	Under	—	65 (93%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	9	Over	—	64 (91%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	7	Under	—	67 (94%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	12	Over	—	77 (94%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	12	Over	—	56 (97%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	4	Under	—	42 (71%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	3	Under	—	52 (90%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	9	Over	—	64 (97%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	5	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	8	Over	—	54 (93%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SF	6	Under	—	51 (88%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DET	3	Under	—	50 (85%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LA	6	Under	—	55 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ BUF	5	Under	—	52 (85%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.