NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Malik Washington WR

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions

Hit rate · All 33%12/36 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.6
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 3.00–6
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Targets7.2▲+3.4

Rec4.6▲+1.9

Rec Yds52.4▲+33.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps49.6▲+16.5

Snap %84.8%▲+27.8

3.5

2024

1

Sep 30
0

Oct 06
2

Oct 20
0

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
1

Nov 11
3

Nov 17
1

Nov 24
2

Nov 28
0

Dec 08
5

Dec 15
3

Dec 22
4

Dec 29
4

Jan 05
2025

2

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
3

Sep 18
2

Sep 29
4

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
3

Oct 30
2

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
4

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
1

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 24% 4/17 · avg 2.4
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 2.9
vs NYJ 25% 1/4 · avg 2.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 69% 25/36
O 2.5 56% 20/36
O 3.5 Today 33% 12/36
O 4.5 14% 5/36
O 5.5 3% 1/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds146.6#14
Receptions11.6#16
Targets18.3#16
Yds/Target8.0#16
Rec TD1.2#4

WRs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main WR who faced NYJ this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average33% (4/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Romeo Doubs	1	2.6	-62%
Oct 18	DeMario Douglas	7	2.6	+169%
Oct 11	KC Concepcion	1	4.2	-76%
Oct 11	Denzel Boston	3	2.8	+7%
Oct 04	Luther Burden III	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 04	Kalif Raymond	2	4.8	-58%
Sep 27	Amon-Ra St. Brown	4	8.2	-52%
Sep 27	Jameson Williams	4	3.5	+14%
Sep 20	Matthew Golden	4	5.2	-23%
Sep 20	Christian Watson	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 13	Carnell Tate	4	5.0	-20%
Sep 13	Wan'Dale Robinson	5	4.0	+25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%6.7 yds	8%13.5 yds	12%2.8 yds
Short	31%6.1 yds	10%5.6 yds	26%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	6	Over	4.5	53 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	5	Over	4.5	34 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	5	Over	3.5	63 (86%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	4	Over	3.5	43 (73%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	3	Under	2.5	55 (98%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NE	3	Under	2.5	39 (70%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	1	Under	2.5	35 (64%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	1	Under	0.5	31 (53%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	1	Under	1.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	3	Under	2.5	34 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs NO	4	Over	3.5	36 (60%)
2025-11-16	11	vs WAS	3	Under	3.5	28 (50%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BUF	2	Under	2.5	24 (45%)
2025-10-30	9	vs BAL	3	Under	3.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-26	8	@ ATL	4	Over	4.5	43 (62%)
2025-10-19	7	@ CLE	5	Over	4.5	37 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LAC	4	Over	3.5	26 (44%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CAR	4	Over	3.5	32 (58%)
2025-09-29	4	vs NYJ	2	Under	2.5	28 (48%)
2025-09-18	3	@ BUF	3	Under	4.5	33 (54%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NE	1	Under	2.5	35 (61%)
2025-09-07	1	@ IND	2	Under	2.5	28 (58%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NYJ	4	Over	—	43 (61%)
2024-12-29	17	@ CLE	4	Over	—	52 (87%)
2024-12-22	16	vs SF	3	Under	—	58 (87%)
2024-12-15	15	@ HOU	5	Over	—	40 (59%)
2024-12-08	14	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	30 (42%)
2024-11-28	13	@ GB	2	Under	—	27 (38%)
2024-11-24	12	vs NE	1	Under	—	23 (34%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LV	3	Under	—	27 (40%)
2024-11-11	10	@ LA	1	Under	—	18 (34%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BUF	0	Under	—	21 (34%)
2024-10-27	8	vs ARI	0	Under	—	16 (25%)
2024-10-20	7	@ IND	2	Under	—	25 (36%)
2024-10-06	5	@ NE	0	Under	—	20 (26%)
2024-09-30	4	vs TEN	1	Under	—	14 (23%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.