NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kendrick Bourne WR

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +126U -161

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 41.8% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 2.3
Graph median: 2.00–8
Over the close: 38%3/8

2026 per game

Targets5.5▲+1.8

Rec4.2▲+1.8

Rec Yds44.5▲+7.8

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps41.0▲+1.1

Snap %57.8%▼-3.2

3.5

2025

0

Nov 30
2

Dec 14
3

Dec 22
1

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
0

Jan 17
2026

8

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
5

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 19% 3/16 · avg 2.1
Away 27% 4/15 · avg 3.3
vs LAR 67% 2/3 · avg 5.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 60% 6/10
O 2.5 30% 3/10
O 3.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 4.5 20% 2/10
O 5.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds129.6#23
Receptions9.3#30
Targets16.1#28
Yds/Target8.0#16
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %-8%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	3	3.8	-20%
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	1	3.5	-71%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	3	3.5	-14%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	2	4.0	-50%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	7.0	-86%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	6	4.5	+33%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6	2.5	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%12.0 yds	0%	6%0.0 yds
Short	43%7.0 yds	26%5.7 yds	14%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	5	Over	3.5	36 (49%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	2	Under	2.5	48 (55%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	2	Under	2.5	30 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	8	Over	2.5	50 (67%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	0.5	24 (40%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	22 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	1	Under	1.5	19 (26%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	3	Under	2.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	2	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	0	Under	—	23 (34%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.