NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Puka Nacua WR

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

7.5 Receptions O -127U -101

Hit rate · All 49%17/35 Odds imply 52.7% Over

Season avg: 10.3
Graph avg: 7.8
Graph median: 7.01–17
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Targets15.0▲+4.1

Rec10.3▲+2.3

Rec Yds112.3▲+4.6

Rec TD0.3▼-0.3

Snaps63.0▲+15.4

Snap %81.7%▲+11.1

7.5

2024

4

Sep 08
7

Oct 24
1

Nov 03
9

Nov 11
7

Nov 17
9

Nov 24
5

Dec 01
12

Dec 08
7

Dec 12
8

Dec 22
10

Dec 28
5

Jan 13
6

Jan 19
2025

10

Sep 07
8

Sep 14
11

Sep 21
13

Sep 28
10

Oct 02
2

Oct 12
7

Nov 02
5

Nov 09
7

Nov 16
7

Nov 23
6

Nov 30
7

Dec 07
9

Dec 14
12

Dec 18
5

Dec 29
10

Jan 04
10

Jan 10
5

Jan 18
9

Jan 25
2026

5

Sep 10
9

Oct 04
17

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 62% 10/16 · avg 9.2
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 6.7
vs ARI 67% 2/3 · avg 9.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 74% 26/35
O 6.5 69% 24/35
O 7.5 Today 49% 17/35
O 8.5 43% 15/35
O 9.5 29% 10/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds141.7#17
Receptions9.7#28
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.1#5
Rec TD1.7#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-22%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	7.8	-23%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	5.8	+4%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	5.2	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.0	+12%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.8	-29%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.3	+114%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%6.8 yds	6%26.9 yds	19%13.4 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	19%7.9 yds	27%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	17	Over	7.5	70 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	9	Over	6.5	76 (90%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	5	Under	7.5	43 (70%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	9	Over	7.5	48 (79%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	5	Under	7.5	70 (90%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	10	Over	8.5	60 (79%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	10	Over	7.5	52 (69%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	5	Under	5.5	48 (74%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	12	Over	7.5	72 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	9	Over	9.5	40 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	7	Under	6.5	31 (44%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	6	Under	5.5	38 (73%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	7	Under	7.5	46 (82%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	7	Under	7.5	34 (67%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	5	Under	5.5	36 (52%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	7	Under	7.5	39 (49%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	2	Under	8.5	27 (51%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	10	Over	9.5	63 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	13	Over	14.5	61 (81%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	11	Over	6.5	60 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	8	Over	6.5	42 (69%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	10	Over	8.5	38 (63%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	6	Under	—	63 (89%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	5	Under	—	45 (85%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	10	Over	—	54 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	8	Over	—	42 (81%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	7	Under	—	50 (77%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	12	Over	—	59 (77%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	5	Under	—	44 (79%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	9	Over	—	51 (80%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	7	Under	—	39 (75%)
2024-11-11	10	vs MIA	9	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	1	Under	—	27 (35%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	7	Under	—	41 (57%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	4	Under	—	25 (32%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.