NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ty Johnson RB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -183U +143

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 61.1% Over

Season avg: 3.3
Graph avg: 1.7
Graph median: 2.00–4
Over the close: 67%10/15

2026 per game

Carries0.3▼-2.6

Rush Yds1.0▼-10.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.2

Targets3.3▲+1.4

Rec3.3▲+1.9

Rec Yds43.7▲+28.2

Snaps16.0▼-3.7

Snap %25.7%▼-3.9

1.5

2025

0

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
1

Sep 18
0

Sep 28
0

Oct 05
1

Oct 13
0

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
3

Nov 20
3

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
3

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
2026

4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
4

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 1.3
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 1.5
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 70% 14/20
O 1.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 2.5 30% 6/20
O 3.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds112.0#6
Yds/Carry4.6#7
Rush TD0.7#14
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds28.0#23

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.9

Avg diff %-5%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3.0	+0%
Oct 04	Kenneth Walker III	1	3.7	-73%
Sep 27	Travis Etienne	2	4.5	-56%
Sep 20	Keaton Mitchell	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 13	De'Von Achane	4	1.5	+167%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%23.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	53%10.6 yds	9%7.7 yds	34%8.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	4	Over	2.5	14 (22%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	2	Over	1.5	19 (32%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	4	Over	1.5	15 (23%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	2	Over	—	25 (33%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	3	Over	1.5	29 (38%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	16 (32%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	18 (26%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	2	Over	1.5	16 (25%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	3	Over	2.5	20 (27%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	3	Over	2.5	23 (35%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	2	Over	2.5	18 (32%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Over	—	27 (40%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	2	Over	0.5	13 (20%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	0	Under	—	20 (32%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	1	Under	—	24 (42%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	0	Under	—	12 (18%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	0	Under	0.5	12 (20%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	1	Under	0.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	0	Under	1.5	19 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	0	Under	0.5	28 (33%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5PrizePicks 2

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.