NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Xavier Hutchinson WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

1.5 Receptions O -121U -106

Hit rate · Last 20 75%15/20 Odds imply 51.6% Over

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 2.5
Graph median: 3.00–5
Over the close: 63%12/19

2026 per game

Targets6.2▲+2.1

Rec3.2▲+0.9

Rec Yds46.2▲+18.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps36.4▼-4.7

Snap %52.6%▼-7.1

1.5

2025

2

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
1

Oct 20
5

Oct 26
3

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
0

Nov 20
2

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
1

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 27
5

Jan 04
2

Jan 12
4

Jan 18
2026

3

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
4

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 1.9
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 1.9
vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 Today 75% 15/20
O 2.5 55% 11/20
O 3.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds172.6#4
Receptions13.4#3
Targets21.3#3
Yds/Target8.1#14
Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dontayvion Wicks	5	3.0	+67%
Oct 11	Makai Lemon	5	2.5	+100%
Oct 04	Ja'Marr Chase	3	6.0	-50%
Oct 04	Tee Higgins	11	4.0	+175%
Sep 27	Mack Hollins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	DeMario Douglas	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 20	Pat Bryant	0	3.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaylen Waddle	8	2.8	+186%
Sep 13	Denzel Boston	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 13	KC Concepcion	4	3.5	+14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	3%0.0 yds	14%7.6 yds
Short	23%3.4 yds	31%10.1 yds	26%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	4	Over	1.5	27 (41%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	3	Over	2.5	17 (31%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	3	Over	3.5	29 (54%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	3	Over	2.5	65 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	3	Over	1.5	44 (56%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	4	Over	2.5	63 (84%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	2	Over	2.5	45 (66%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	5	Over	2.5	54 (79%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	2	Over	2.5	31 (48%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	1	Under	1.5	32 (49%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	1	Under	1.5	20 (30%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	0	Under	0.5	28 (40%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	2	Over	0.5	42 (55%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	21 (36%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	3	Over	1.5	37 (53%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	3	Over	1.5	46 (63%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	5	Over	2.5	57 (71%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	1	Under	—	59 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	3	Over	1.5	47 (67%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	2	Over	1.5	48 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.