NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Schultz TE

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

3.5 Receptions O +105U -134

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 46.0% Over

Season avg: 4.8
Graph avg: 4.8
Graph median: 4.01–12
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets6.2▲+0.3

Rec4.8▲+0.2

Rec Yds48.8▲+4.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps40.8▼-6.2

Snap %60.8%▼-7.8

3.5

2025

5

Oct 05
9

Oct 20
2

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
7

Nov 09
6

Nov 16
1

Nov 20
7

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
8

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
3

Dec 27
4

Jan 04
3

Jan 12
2

Jan 18
2026

4

Sep 13
12

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 48% 10/21 · avg 4.0
Away 46% 10/22 · avg 4.0
vs JAX 75% 3/4 · avg 5.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 95% 19/20
O 2.5 80% 16/20
O 3.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 4.5 45% 9/20
O 5.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.5#27
Receptions4.2#26
Targets6.3#25
Yds/Target6.1#25
Rec TD0.4#13

TEs vs JAX · 2026

Each main TE who faced JAX this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Dallas Goedert	6	2.5	+140%
Oct 04	Mike Gesicki	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	Hunter Henry	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 20	Evan Engram	1	2.2	-55%
Sep 13	Harold Fannin Jr.	2	4.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	4%12.5 yds	4%8.5 yds
Short	28%8.9 yds	20%10.1 yds	44%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	3	Under	4.5	34 (52%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	2	Under	4.5	35 (64%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	3	Under	5.5	29 (54%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	12	Over	4.5	54 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	4	Over	3.5	52 (66%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	2	Under	4.5	12 (16%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	3	Under	3.5	54 (79%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	4	Over	4.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	3	Under	2.5	51 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	5	Over	4.5	46 (71%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	8	Over	3.5	53 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	3	Under	3.5	52 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	7	Over	4.5	55 (72%)
2025-11-20	12	vs BUF	1	Under	1.5	48 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	6	Over	4.5	48 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	vs JAX	7	Over	4.5	58 (77%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	6	Over	3.5	58 (79%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	2	Under	5.5	49 (61%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	9	Over	—	57 (75%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	5	Over	3.5	41 (59%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.