NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DeVonta Smith WR

PHI vs CAR · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -143U +112

Hit rate · All 45%17/38 Odds imply 55.5% Over

Season avg: 6.3
Graph avg: 4.9
Graph median: 4.01–11
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets9.0▲+2.1

Rec6.3▲+1.6

Rec Yds78.3▲+18.4

Rec TD0.3▲+0.1

Snaps56.3▲+3.3

Snap %94.3%▲+9.5

4.5

2024

7

Sep 06
7

Sep 16
7

Sep 22
3

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
6

Oct 27
4

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
4

Nov 14
4

Dec 08
11

Dec 15
6

Dec 22
6

Dec 29
4

Jan 12
4

Jan 19
4

Jan 26
4

Feb 09
2025

3

Sep 04
4

Sep 14
8

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
8

Oct 05
4

Oct 09
9

Oct 19
6

Oct 26
4

Nov 10
1

Nov 16
6

Nov 23
5

Nov 28
4

Dec 08
2

Dec 14
6

Dec 20
2

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
8

Jan 11
2026

3

Sep 13
10

Sep 20
6

Sep 28
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 41% 9/22 · avg 5.0
Away 50% 8/16 · avg 4.9
vs CAR 0% 0/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 84% 32/38
O 3.5 74% 28/38
O 4.5 Today 45% 17/38
O 5.5 42% 16/38
O 6.5 24% 9/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CAR

What CAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds148.4#13
Receptions12.3#8
Targets19.3#8
Yds/Target7.7#23
Rec TD0.6#27

WRs vs CAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced CAR this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average62% (5/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	7.2	+10%
Oct 04	Jameson Williams	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	KC Concepcion	2	4.0	-50%
Sep 27	Denzel Boston	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 20	Drake London	4	5.8	-30%
Sep 20	Jahan Dotson	2	1.5	+33%
Sep 13	Luther Burden III	5	4.5	+11%
Sep 13	Kalif Raymond	8	4.0	+100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.4 yds	2%14.2 yds	10%12.5 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	16%6.4 yds	36%4.0 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CAR defense

CAR defense: Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.1 yds#6	5%12.2 yds#25	6%10.2 yds#20
Short	28%4.9 yds#29	24%8.5 yds#7	31%5.3 yds#19

Throws CAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%7.9 yds	0%	12%14.2 yds
Short	36%5.8 yds	11%6.6 yds	30%7.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	5	5.6	28	19.5%
3	Dallas Goedert TE	3	5.3	16	17.6%
4	Makai Lemon WR	5	4.4	22	16.0%
5	Dameon Pierce RB	1	5.0	5	13.5%
6	Zach Ertz TE	3	2.7	8	9.8%
7	Darius Cooper WR	5	2.6	13	9.0%
8	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
9	Will Shipley RB	5	1.6	8	5.6%
10	Johnny Mundt TE	4	1.2	5	3.9%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	6	Over	5.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	10	Over	4.5	67 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	3	Under	5.5	52 (95%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	8	Over	6.5	67 (92%)
2026-01-04	18	vs WAS	3	Under	—	9 (14%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	2	Under	2.5	46 (85%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	6	Over	6.5	60 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	2	Under	4.5	36 (52%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	4	Under	3.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	5	Over	2.5	51 (94%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	6	Over	4.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	1	Under	1.5	70 (97%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	4	Under	—	58 (92%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	6	Over	5.5	53 (90%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	9	Over	4.5	44 (88%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	4	Under	5.5	55 (96%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	8	Over	4.5	60 (98%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	2	Under	2.5	52 (91%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	8	Over	6.5	64 (96%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	4	Under	4.5	45 (75%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	3	Under	4.5	56 (89%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	4	Under	—	57 (77%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs WAS	4	Under	—	59 (83%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs LA	4	Under	—	57 (90%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	4	Under	—	54 (90%)
2024-12-29	17	vs DAL	6	Over	—	52 (80%)
2024-12-22	16	@ WAS	6	Over	—	61 (82%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	11	Over	—	74 (93%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	4	Under	—	52 (90%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	4	Under	—	63 (89%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	2	Under	—	49 (72%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	4	Under	—	76 (96%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CIN	6	Over	—	57 (93%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	1	Under	—	53 (80%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	3	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ NO	7	Over	—	55 (76%)
2024-09-16	2	vs ATL	7	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	7	Over	—	76 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.